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VK2AAB > CARS 31.01.08 07:08l 137 Lines 6625 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Future of cars (US)
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Sent: 080131/0402Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:56222 [SYDNEY] FBB7.00i
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : CARS@WW
Here is an article from the Energy Bulletin.
It gives the US perspective on their future car usage.
Except for the numbers much the same situation will occur in Australia.
When it bights will the US public demand military action to get their needs ?
That is a question that is undergoing significant analysis at present.
If so will the US military have enough fuel to do the job anyway ?
73 Barry VK2AAB
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The peak oil crisis: The future of our cars
by Tom Whipple
RELATED NEWS:
Peak oil - Jan 24...
How the coming home heating crisis could threaten the grid...
Food & agriculture - Jan 25...
Coal - Jan 23...
Housing & urban design - Jan 25...
Within the next ten years the size, shape, efficiency, fuel and
numbers of private automobiles is going to undergo a radical
change. The nine million gallons of gasoline we currently use in
the U.S. each day simply will not be available in the quantities
desired at any price. If a transition to a more abundant fuel
source than gasoline and diesel does not take place on a
widespread basis before the shortages begin, there will be
troubles. It is virtually certain that at some point the
government will have to impose rationing that will keep functions
vital to our society such as food, water, utilities and public
safety functioning. The rest of us are going to have to find
alternative means of transportation.
The solution to this problem is likely to be a much more diverse
set of vehicles and modes of transportation than we have become
accustomed to in the last 100 years of the automobile age.
Despite their terribly low efficiency, the automobiles we now
enjoy are incredibly flexible machines that can take us
comfortably and inexpensively down the block or across the
country in nearly all kinds of weather. In some forms the
personal car could not only carry us, and a goodly number of
friends or relatives, but also an incredible amount of stuff. As
gasoline has nearly always been cheap and plentiful few gave a
second thought to using a 4000 pound vehicle to transport a 150
pound person many miles to buy a pack of cigarettes at who-cares-
how-few miles per gallon.
Our options for personal transport in the nearer-than-we-think
future are going to be highly dependent on the timing of a number
of situations currently developing. For example, if some man-made
or natural catastrophe takes away a large portion of our gasoline
supply overnight, there would, by definition, be no choice than
to cut way back on driving, form car pools and use whatever
public transit is available. While it may be a shock to our
sensibilities and accustomed lifestyles, loading four to 15
people in a car, SUV or van can provide a lot of passenger-miles
for a fraction of the fuel we use today.
It would take a lot of organization and an undreamed amount of
inconvenience, but I suspect that gasoline consumption in the
U.S. could be cut in half rather quickly if necessary. There are,
of course, many uses for gasoline and diesel that would be much
more difficult to reduce such as that used to deliver food,
support utility maintenance and provide for public safety. When
the troubles come, the burden of doing without will fall on our
cars and light trucks.
Other scenarios would have our gasoline supply gradually slipping
away over a period of years or simply becoming too expensive to
allow virtually unlimited use of cars as we do today. If this is
the way things turn out, then there will be a race for new power
sources and probably shapes for personal cars. For the
foreseeable future, the only alternative sources of power for
private cars are electricity and compressed natural gas.
There are other candidates to power vehicles, such as hydrogen,
compressed air and solar panels and there is no reason why one or
more of these might not become viable someday. However, given the
current technology, it is likely to be decades before they could
come into widespread use. Our remaining candidates require little
in the way of technological improvements.
Except for buses, natural gas vehicles are virtually unknown in
the U.S. although there are about 7 million of them in operation
worldwide. In some South Asian countries such as Bangladesh, Iran
and Pakistan, the natural gas powered vehicles make up about 25
percent of the cars on the road. Tehran which must import nearly
half of its gasoline recently declared that from here on out cars
are to be powered by natural gas in order to reduce reliance on
imported gasoline. Sounds sort of familiar, doesnt it?
The main reason natural gas hasnt caught on in the U.S. is that
it needs to be stored under pressure in big bottles that take up
a lot more space than gasoline for a given range. As long as
gasoline was cheap, few were willing to give up a 300+ mile range
for 150 miles and trouble finding a place to refuel. Unless you
were a really dedicated tree-hugger who felt better driving a car
with near zero emissions, then you werent about to go to the
expense or hassle of owning one.
So what are the prospects for a massive switch to natural gas
vehicles? Given the option of natural gas with a few minor
drawbacks, or walking, the answer to that is a no-brainer. Where
do I buy one? Actually, you can, for Honda recently started
selling the natural gas version of its Civic to the general
public rather than just to fleets. Dont run out and order one,
however, until you fully understand the limits on the
availability of natural gas and how you plan to use it.
As the price of imported gasoline goes off the scale, there is no
reason why American Industry cant start cranking out large
quantities of natural gas powered cars, kits to convert existing
cars, and natural gas compressing pumps to create fuel either at
home or filling stations.
The big show stopper is whether we will have enough natural gas
supply to heat our homes and water, make our fertilizer and
generate enough electricity for our air conditioners, much less
power some fraction of our 230 million cars. The answer is a
resounding NO! U.S. natural gas production has been flat for
years and the only way we can keep it that way is by drilling
more and more gas wells each year. Our friends in Canada just
announced that their natural gas production, read exports to the
U.S., is about to start declining. While it sounds like a great
idea, we are not going to have enough natural gas and can clearly
find better uses for that which remains.
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