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VK2AAB > FUEL 09.12.11 08:54l 48 Lines 2178 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2748_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST DK3UZ
Subj: End of Growth
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Sent: 111208/2327Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:2748 [SYDNEY] $:2748_VK2AAB
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
A PEAK OIL UPDATE No 2
A funny thing happened on the way to the peak.
Crude oil production peaked in 2006 (IEA 2010 Oil outlook).
After the peak of all liquids in 2008 and the Great Financial Crash (GFC)
occurred the price of oil fell to under $40 a barrel for a while, but soon
started back up again and an interesting phenomina has become visable.
As the price rises the demand for oil eases back and the demand has
stabalised, but aside from fairly small changes in price what is known as
price sensitivity has taken over.
We are reducing our demand while the Chinese are increasing their demand,
so the amount used remains roughly the same.
Our demand is reduced by less travel and smaller cars with better fuel
consumption.
China's increase is caused by a million new cars a year and diesel
consumption increasing because of road transport of coal and generator usage
caused by electricity shortages.
The experts think this situation will continue until we reach a point where
our demand cannot be reduced or our economy would suffer. This is the point
known as price inflexability.
This is the point where courier, tradies, travelling salesmen, electricians,
plumbers, truckies etc have no choice but to buy petrol & diesel no matter
what the price.
At that point we will start to see physical shortages.
However even such shortages may be put off further because the cost of fuel
is reducing our GDP and reducing our economic activity. As our economy
contracts further fuel demand will reduce.
The End of Growth.
We are now entering an era of zero growth. As the oil production has now
stabilised on a plateau any growth in China and India consumption will result
in a price rise and a reduction in developed countries oil consumption.
However as GDP is reduced by the cost of energy there is an inevitable
reduction in growth and GDP.
Note that all major “western” economies are having difficulty in increasing
growth.
There is now every likelyhood that the end of growth is here now.
If you want to read further on this subject I reccomend the book
The End of Growth by Richard Heinberg
73 Barry VK2AAB
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