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VK6BE > FUEL 09.12.11 10:44l 88 Lines 5019 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7D0235VK6BE
Read: GUEST DK3UZ
Subj: Re: End of Growth
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Sent: 111209/0817Z @:VK6ZRT.#BUN.#WA.AUS.OC #:10633 [Boyanup] $:7D0235VK6BE
From: VK6BE@VK6ZRT.#BUN.#WA.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
I don't read books like that. They remind me of Prof. Tim Flannery who
predicted that SA would be out of water several years ago, and the
eastern sea board would be reduced to low levels in the dams.Perth would
be Australia's first ghost city because of lack of water.It would be
abandoned abnd stand a silent abandoned sentinel of climate change. It
didn't happen to this bustling thriving city which expanding rapidly.!.
Was he right? Perth had its wettest late winter for more than 20 years,
They gave up cars in favour of boats in parts of the eastern seaboard and
inland in record floods. Now the Federal Govt has appointed Tim as an
expert on climate. Stop laughing! It's not funny!
As for growth the last report I saw said that this country's economy was
still growing albeit at a reduced rate. I can still get almost 6% on term
deposits. That's not a sign of recession is it?
I am no expert on fuel supplies but when this topic was under discussion
on packet several years ago I said that the human being is resourceful and
would find a way, and it appears that this has been demonstrated already.
Our rooftops are covered with solar panels for both hot water and
electricity, solar power runs all the airport beacons, harbour beacons and
warning lights in our harbours. The small rural telephone exchanges are
all run by solar power. If you have a breakdown on a major highway in this
state and probably in the others too you can find a roadside telephone
powered by solar energy so that you can call for help.Even the street
lights on the Great Northern Highway near Exmouth are solar powered and
they are bright sodium lamps similar to those in our cities. Meekatharra
has a solar steam engine which powers the town during the day switching to
a diesel powered plant at night. Solar power is in evidence everywhere in
this state.
Now electric cars seem to be a fact of life and their production and use
will increase without any doubt. The main problem at present is cost of
purchase but as they become more common and production methods improve
that will change. Some have dropped considerably in price already.The
production of ethyl alcohol for fuel will without doubt increase
significantly. It may be that in another 30 or so years we will not need
fossil fuels. Now don't anyone give me that story of the production of
ethyl alcohol is going to reduce our ability to produce food in this
country. If you believe that you have never been to Kunnunurra where there
are unlimited stocks of fresh water in the Ord system and thousands of
square km of land for food production, but unused at present. Geike Gorge
has enough water going through there daily to more than fill Sydney
Harbour. Think of it! That's after the barrage across the river has
stopped a lot of the flow.
Our biggest threat is PESSIMISM and some of those writers who class
themselves as experts are our worst enemies in that regard.
Cheers,
Bob VK6BE.
PS: There is a programme on commercial TV Today Tonight headed here by
Monika Kos. That lady has spent a considerable amount of air time putting
us off eating most of the foods we usually eat. They are "dangerous"!!
Last night it was Christmas hams. If you buy them at your local
Supermarrket you may be buying last year's hams imported from Timbuctoo
and dangerous because of bacteria. Every thing is labelled with its origin
here so I don't see how that can happen but she quotes her "experts" and
ploughs on just the same.. Margarine is out, cookig oil is oout, green
leaf veges carry e coli bacteria. Don't eat them. Oranges probably came
from the Republic of SXt^^# and should not bought or eaten and so on, This
lady would scare some people into becoming subject to eating disease but
she quotes from "experts". Figures!
>he experts think this situation will continue until we reach a point where
our demand cannot be reduced or our economy would suffer. This is the
point known as price inflexability.
This is the point where courier, tradies, travelling salesmen,
electricians,plumbers, truckies etc have no choice but to buy petrol &
diesel no matter what the price.
At that point we will start to see physical shortages.However even such
shortages may be put off further because the cost of fuel is reducing our
GDP and reducing our economic activity. As our economy
contracts further fuel demand will reduce.
The End of Growth.
We are now entering an era of zero growth. As the oil production has now
stabilised on a plateau any growth in China and India consumption will
result in a price rise and a reduction in developed countries oil
consumption. However as GDP is reduced by the cost of energy there is an
inevitable reduction in growth and GDP.
Note that all major “western” economies are having difficulty in
increasing growth.
There is now every likelyhood that the end of growth is here now.
If you want to read further on this subject I reccomend the book
The End of Growth by Richard Heinberg
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