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W7EES > SWPC 18.04.19 04:34l 57 Lines 1905 Bytes #-2635 (0) @ WW
BID : 8728_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 107 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Apr, 19 Apr, 20 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 369 km/s at 16/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 733 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Apr, 19 Apr, 20
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Apr 076
Predicted 18 Apr-20 Apr 076/074/072
90 Day Mean 17 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Apr 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Apr 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Apr-20 Apr 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Apr-20 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
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