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W7EES > SWPC 17.04.19 20:34l 60 Lines 2021 Bytes #-2636 (0) @ WW
BID : 8705_W7EES
Read: DF7EAV DK3UZ GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 15/0816Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 15/1809Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/0644Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr, 18
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 075
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
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