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W7EES > SWPC 18.08.18 11:44l 47 Lines 1587 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4148_W7EES
Read: DK3UZ GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<N0KFQ<NS2B<KQ0I<LU9DCE<N3HYM<N8HEE<KC8KPM<
N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180811/1109Z 4148@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 398 km/s at 10/1233Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
10/0756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/1838Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 070
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 006/005-009/008-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/25
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