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IK4MTG > PROPAG 01.02.97 19:02l 70 Lines 2459 Bytes #-10755 (0) @ WW
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To : PROPAG@ITA
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
Last update January 30, 1997 at 0350 UTC.
This report has moved to http://dxlc.com/solar/,
the report will be duplicated at the old site until January 31,
1997.
Recent development
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 29.
Solar wind speed ranged between 490 and 669 km/sec. The
disturbance that started on the 26th seems to have come to an
end. Solar flux was 74.6 on the 29th, the planetary A index was 8
(K index: 3311 2132). The background x-ray flux is at
approximately the A2 level. Solar region 8014 decayed to plage,
while new region 8015 was numbered. This new region produced a B5
subflare at about 19h UTC, currently it doesn't seem to have much
potential for further development. The active region at the east
limb near latitude S30 has become more diffuse, and has probably
decayed to plage. A coronal hole is visible in the northern
hemisphere, it will start to move into a geoeffective position
late today. Another possible coronal hole is in the southern
hemisphere and could become geoeffective from February 1.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet from the
until February 2nd. Long distance mediumwave propagation along
east-west paths is currently poor. The next interval with above
normal propagation is likely February 10-16.
Average monthly solar flux
April 1996: 69.3
May 1996: 70.1
June 1996: 69.6
July 1996: 71.2
August 1996: 72.4
September 1996: 69.4
October 1996: 69.2 (solar flux minimum)
November 1996: 78.7
December 1996: 77.8
January 1997: 74.1 (running average)
Monthly international sunspot number
April 1996: 5.1
May 1996: 5.6 (sunspot minimum with a monthly SSN of 8.1)
June 1996: 11.8
July 1996: 8.8
August 1996: 14.0
September 1996: 1.8
October 1996: 1.8
November 1996: 18.6
December 1996: 12.7
January 1997: 7.8 (accumulated, unofficial value as of 970129)
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad based on data
from Solar Terrestrial Dispatch (STD), Space
Environment Center (SEC), IPS, NASA and Lockheed Martin.
The report is generally updated once a day.
The Webmaster welcomes comments and suggestions.
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