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IK4MTG > PROPAG 01.02.97 17:56l 65 Lines 2259 Bytes #-10755 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Propagazione onde medie dal 29/1
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To : PROPAG@ITA
Solar Terrestrial Activity Report
Last update January 29, 1997 at 0225 UTC.
This report has moved to http://dxlc.com/solar/,
the report will be duplicated at the old site until January 31,
1997.
Recent development
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm level on
January 28. Solar wind speed ranged between 462 and 778 km/sec,
an unusually high value for a coronal hole related stream. The
disturbance started on the 26th preceded by a couple of solar
wind shock fronts. The only coronal hole visible that could cause
the disturbance is an extension of the southern polar coronal
hole that was in a geoeffective position some days ago. Solar
flux was 72.9 on the 28th, the planetary A index is estimated at
20 (K index: 3533 4443). The background x-ray flux is near the A1
level. Solar region 8014 is small and stable. A bright region is
approaching the east limb near latitude S30, expect to see solar
flux increase as it rotates onto the visible disk. A coronal hole
is visible in the northern hemisphere, it should reach a
geoeffective position on February 1.
Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active today
and mostly quiet from the 30th until February 3rd. Long distance
mediumwave propagation along east-west paths is currently poor to
useless. The next interval with above normal propagation is
likely February 10-16.
Average monthly solar flux
April 1996: 69.3
May 1996: 70.1
June 1996: 69.6
July 1996: 71.2
August 1996: 72.4
September 1996: 69.4
October 1996: 69.2 (solar flux minimum)
November 1996: 78.7
December 1996: 77.8
January 1997: 74.0 (running average)
Monthly international sunspot number
April 1996: 5.1
May 1996: 5.6 (sunspot minimum with a monthly SSN of 8.1)
June 1996: 11.8
July 1996: 8.8
August 1996: 14.0
September 1996: 1.8
October 1996: 1.8
November 1996: 18.6
December 1996: 12.7
January 1997: 7.3 (accumulated, unofficial value as of 970128)
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad based on data
from Solar Terrestrial Dispatch (STD), Space
Environment Center (SEC), IPS, NASA and Lockheed Martin.
The report is generally updated once a day.
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