| |
G4EBT > FUEL 17.03.08 22:58l 79 Lines 3105 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 908272G4EBT
Read: GUEST
Subj: Re: Bad News For Oz, VK2AAB
Path: DB0FHN<DB0RGB<DB0SL<DB0FSG<DB0RBS<DB0KTL<DB0LHR<F6KFT<LX0PAC<DB0NDK<
DB0MKA<DB0ACC<DB0GOS<DB0RES<ON4HU<F4BWT<ON0BEL<GB7FCR
Sent: 080317/1903Z @:GB7FCR.#16.GBR.EU #:65094 [Blackpool] FBB-7.03a $:908272G4
From: G4EBT@GB7FCR.#16.GBR.EU
To : FUEL@WW
Barry, VK2AAB wrote:-
> We get the largest amount of oil from Vietnam. However Vietnam has
> gone past its own peak Oil and its exports are falling very fast.
> Because of our dependence on three sources, Vietnam, Papua New Guinea
> and the Philippines which are in depletion their exports are falling
> faster because of the internal consumption is also increasing.
> We have at the most five years before we are hit by significant
> shortages.
> We urgently need to build a gas pipeline from the NW shelf and to
> cancel the long term gas contracts with China and Japan made by
> Woodside in a fit of madness.
> I know that some are sceptical of what I write here but I have to
> admit that the situation is worse than I thought. Most of what is found
> on the Peak Oil subject has a US and EU slant and it is only recently
> that more Australia orientated information has become readily available.
Whichever way this is looked at, there's increasing demand, and with it
dependency, depleted finite resources, and serious political and economic
instability.
Much of the supply is from unfriendly - even hostile, countries.
The higher the price of oil, (and it will, and can, go much higher because
demand is inelastic), the greater the oil revenue to countries which have
bad human rights records. There's little doubt that some of that money
ends up "in the wrong hands".
The Middle East is now so unstable that anything is possible.
If for example, Israel launched an air strike on Iran, (which says Israel
should be "wiped off the face of the earth") the US would
feel obliged to back Israel, as would Saudi Arabia. The Russians
and Chinese might see things differently.
The shock waves and panic this would cause would ripple round the
globe and cause immense damage and instability in the stock markets.
I think something like this is not simply a possibilty but a probability.
And we can forget any thought of Iraq holding together as one entity.
Another aspect which is really quite alarming is population growth.
The world population from 1AD was about 250 million and rose steadily
until by 1776 when America gained independence, it reached one billion.
When I was born in 1939 it still hadn't reached 2 billion, but by 1945,
had passed 2.3 billion. By 2006 it had almost tripled to 6.5 billion and
is estimated to grow to 9.1 billion by 2050.
All of those people need somewhere safe to live, food to eat, clean
water. Those in developed countries such as ours, will have unrealistic
resource-greedy rising expectations for consumer durables.
There's little indication that any country is prepared to alter the
consumption side of the equation in any meaningful way. We just see
the simplistic George Bush approach - what the heck, we'll grow more
corn, fill our gas tanks with that and feed the rest to cattle.
I wont even mention climate change.
Best wishes
David, G4EBT @ GB7FCR
Cottingham, East Yorkshire.
Message timed: 17:02 on 2008-Mar-17
Message sent using WinPack-Telnet V6.70
(Registered).
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
