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VK6BE > FUEL 07.03.08 08:03l 96 Lines 5100 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 552110VK6BE
Read: GUEST
Subj: Re: Optimists & Pessimists
Path: DB0FHN<DB0MRW<OK0PPL<DB0RES<ON0AR<N9ZZK<VE2RXY<VE3UIL<VK2DOT<VK5ZAR<
VK2TV
Sent: 080307/0545Z @:VK2TV.#MNC.NSW.AUS.OC #:33638 [Kempsey, QF68JX] $:552110VK
From: VK6BE@VK2TV.#MNC.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
Yeau! Yeah! I have heard all this before - in 1937 to be exact. I was
playing tennis with my club and we waited for the world to end. It had
been confidently predicted by some crazy group in the USA that the world
would end at 3 p.m. that day, and many people believed them. That was 70
years ago and it has not happened yet.
In this world we can predict nothing with accuracy as there is always some
factor not recognized that emerges. Man is the most adaptable animal as I
said before and there are alternatives that need to be developed. I don't
believe for one minute that the USA and Australia are going to starve and
that hungry people are going to raid our houses because all their food is
going to make fuel for cars. That is a joke. How can we predict what
technology might bring in the future? We can't. Even brilliant men of
science tried that over many years and were proved to be wrong.Who could
have predicted we would be using computers as an everyday thing even 40
years ago. Yet the computer performs operations beyond our wildest dreams
of even 30 years ago.
In all this discussion where does nuclear power come into the picture. It
is now being used in many countries, including Britain and the USA and in
Europe. There are huge reserves of the raw material in Australia, much of
it locked up because of superstitious fears of the "dangers" of using
uranium in any form. Someone might build a bomb, it causes cancer
(properly handled it doesn't), there were accidents - yeah cars kill more
pople every year than nuclear power accidents ever have but do we ban
cars? No, we don't. Tobacco kills thousands of Australians - do we ban it?
Of course not, the manufacturers might go out of business. We could say
the same about alcohol. How many deaths can be proved to have been caused
by normal operation of a nuclear power plant? As many as cars, tobacco and
alcohol? IN your dreams! There is no comparison.
I saw some comment about modern cars using more fuel instead of less
because the manufacturers increase the engine power. The evidence I have
seen in person does not agree with that either. My A model Ford in 1945
did 20 to the gallon. That is roughly 7 km per litre. My son has a late
model Ford Falcon - 4.1 litre motor and tons of HP. He uses 9.5 litres per
100 km.That is nearly 11 km per litre. The smaller cars use far less than
that. In 1945 I had a Royal Enfield 250 motor bike which did about 40 mpg.
I now have a 50cc Taiwanese scooter which has far more ppower but does
about 100 mpg. OK, some people went crazy over four wheel drives but the
best selling cars in this state are the small Toyotas and the small
Hyundai both of which out perform the larger Ford Falcon by a long way as
far as fuel consumption is concerned, and less fuel than would ever be
dreamed of 40 years ago..
It may be that large cars need to go out of the market, and let's face it,
the majority of people do not need a 4 WD or a large car..It may also be
that some sense has to be shown in not allowing cars with driver alone or
only one passenger to clog our city roads. Public transport should be
able to cope with everybody coming in to the city with few
exceptions.There are so many road trains and huge trucks on the road
because our railways have been allowed to deteriorate through lack of
maintenance. They could be brought back into use.
Yes you can put me down as an incurable optimist Barry, but the picture
you paint gives no hope for the future and that is BAD. The suicide rate
is too high now! Time will prove who is right and who is over pessimistic.
By the way, it would be VERY intersting to see Sydney try to retire to a
local agrarian community. Come on Barry. You can't believe that!
You would grow your own food on the Domain and in the grounds of St Mary's
Cathedral, Sydney Cricket Ground? Where?
Cheers,
Bob VK6BE.
>
> THE PESSIMISTS:
>
> Who believe that we are in for very serious economic and food restructuring in a time frame of
last year to 2020.
> They range from believing that;
> 1. Oil production peaked so far at 73 million barrels a day in May 2005. Verified.
> Also that crude oil plus liquids peaked in October 2007. Verified.
> 2. That effective, peaking taking into account ethanol and condensate production will
occur around 2010 2012. Mainly retired oil engineers & geologists.
> 3. Shell, Total, Chevron and IEA expect difficulties from 2015.
>
> THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW ITS:
>
> 1. That we have no time left to develop alternative energy regimes and as a result the
economies will collapse, banks will all fail, food will be extremely
short and society will collapse to local agrarian communities.
>
> 2. The same as group 1 but more on the lines of a Mad Max scenario with mass starvation and a die
off of world population over a period od 100 years to a world population
of 2 billion.
>
>
> I think that is a pretty fair summary of the current situation.
>
> For Bob and the other optimists here is some ammunition for them.
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