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VK2AAB > FUEL 07.03.08 03:18l 83 Lines 3594 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 58642_VK2AAB
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Subj: Optimists & Pessimists
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Sent: 080307/0040Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:58642 [SYDNEY] FBB7.00i
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
There are three groups that write on the subject of peak oil, gas, coal &
uraniun.
THE OPTIMISTS:
Who believe that there is plenty of oil for the next 30 years
or forever.
They range from believing that;
1. Peak oil is real but not for a some decades.
2. Peak oil is not real and there is so much undiscovered oil that it doesn't
matter.
3. Something will be invented as humanity always has invented itself out of
problems.
4. Something will turn up such as a number of elephant oil fields.
5. Abiotic oil. Like Pavlovs dogs this comes from Russia. That oil is
manufactured continuiously by the earth and is not produced by decayed,
heated and compressed living organisims.
6. OPEC Now don't you worry about that all is well.
THE PESSIMISTS:
Who believe that we are in for very serious economic and food restructuring
in a time frame of last year to 2020.
They range from believing that;
1. Oil production peaked so far at 73 million barrels a day in May 2005. Verified.
Also that crude oil plus liquids peaked in October 2007. Verified.
2. That effective, peaking taking into account ethanol and condensate
production will occur around 2010 2012. Mainly retired oil engineers &
geologists.
3. Shell, Total, Chevron and IEA expect difficulties from 2015.
THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW ITS:
1. That we have no time left to develop alternative energy regimes and as a
result the economies will collapse, banks will all fail, food will be
extremely short and society will collapse to local agrarian communities.
2. The same as group 1 but more on the lines of a Mad Max scenario with mass
starvation and a die off of world population over a period od 100 years
to a world population of 2 billion.
I think that is a pretty fair summary of the current situation.
For Bob and the other optimists here is some ammunition for them.
http://www.opednews.com/articles/1/opedne_stephen__080306_peak_oil___true_or_f.htm
For those such as myself who are pessimists here is something for you.
From the Guardian ex oil industry engineer employee;
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jeremy_leggett/2008/03/the_crude_fact.html
From the Falls Church News (US aligned but because the US uses 25% of world
oil very revelant. Writer is retired CIA analyst.
http://www.fcnp.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2650&Itemid=35
For the End oif the worldists;
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ Pretty tame for this group.
There are lots of them on the internet but I don't generally collect them in
my bookmarks. Some go on about how to make ammunition for your guns so that
you will have a supply of ammunition to ward off the marauding gangs of
hungry people. Make no mistake they believe it because they believe national
governments will collapse.
Unfortunately there is a grain of truth in the possibility of national
government collapse or at least a loss of presence of national government as
there will be a move towards localisation of food production and the
manufacture of the necessities of life such as furniture and houses etc.
I hope you don't feel too dismal about all this but it is face up to it time
quite soon. I believe that it is possible the new labour government will have
to start making adjustments before the end of their current term of office.
So far they choose to ignore the problem and the bald one goes out of his way
to ignore questions on the subject.
73 Barry VK2AAB
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