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VK2AAB > FUEL 05.02.08 01:02l 62 Lines 2997 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Global Warming & Peak Oil
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Sent: 080204/2244Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:56575 [SYDNEY] FBB7.00i
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
From the ASPO February 2008 Newsletter
73 Barry VK2AAB
-----------------------------
1003. Peak Oil and Climate Change
It seems to be increasingly recognized that Peak Oil and Climate
Change are the two greatest challenges facing modern man. They
may be intimately related insofar as the abundant supply of cheap
oil-based energy led to the rapid expansion of industry, transport,
trade and agriculture allowing the population to expand sixfold
in parallel. It would be surprising if this sudden explosion of
population did not have some environmental impact as forests were
cut, cities expanded and industrial smoke filled the air.
The atmosphere is, after all, no more than a thin skin, a few
kilometers thick, protecting life on earth from excessive
radiation.
The climate has of course changed many times in the geological
past. Indeed every bedding plane seen on outcropping rocks
reflects some climate change, whether between winter and summer
or longer cycles.
There have also been some extreme events, possibly prompted by
massive volcanic eruptions, which led to mass extinctions.
They incidentally provided the conditions for oil formation as
algae proliferated in the warm sunlit waters and their remains
were preserved in the stagnant depths.
In addition, there is the impact of two solar radiation cycles of
11 and 200 years duration, caused by orbital and other astronomical
factors. The link with carbon dioxide concentration is not straightforward
insofar as it is unsure if it is the cause or effect of global
warming, with the oceans being a far larger repository than the atmosphere.
There have been several Ice Ages in the geological past, with the
last major one ending only 11,500 years ago.
A lesser one, known as The Little Ice Age, lasted from 1500
to 1850, when glaciers expanded and sealevels fell.
The Pulkovo Observatory in Russia reports that the Earth
has now passed its current warm period, and can expect cooler
conditions to build from 2012 to 2041, when solar activity reaches a minimum.
An interesting paper (in French) on the subject by Jean Laherr?e
has been published in the ASPO-France website (aspofrance.viabloga.com).
Amongst other things it questions the validity of carbon-dioxide
concentrations extracted from ice cores, which may not be
accurate because of diffusion during shallow depths of burial.
It sounds as if Peak Oil is the more pressing issue, and
certainly the one that is the more easily tackled by
Mankind. Many claims are made that more investment is required to
step up production, but ironically that would serve simply to heighten
and advance the peak, giving a steeper subsequent decline and thereby make
a bad situation worse. What is needed are some new intelligent
economic principles by which to manage contraction.
It might even be worth buying an overcoat, if falling solar radiation
turns out to have a greater impact than man-made emissions.
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