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G4EBT > FUEL 30.01.08 22:40l 163 Lines 5796 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : B97762G4EBT
Read: GUEST
Subj: Re: Cars and peak oil (VK2AWZ)
Path: DB0FHN<DB0FOR<DB0MRW<OK0PPL<DB0RES<DK0WUE<GB7FCR
Sent: 080130/1955Z @:GB7FCR.#16.GBR.EU #:60026 [Blackpool] FBB-7.03a $:B97762G4
From: G4EBT@GB7FCR.#16.GBR.EU
To : FUEL@WW
Dave, VK2AWZ wrote:-
>Re Peak Oil crisis, it has not deterred sales here in VK of large
>fuel guzzling cars.
Give it time - it will do.
>The 2007 figures just out, have the Holden
>Commodore, as the biggest selling single car.
It's obviously a hit with the motoring public - in 2007 the VE Commodore
was the fourteenth in a line of Commodores and the fifth Commodore model
to receive the prestigious "Wheels Car of the Year" award.
But 3.5 L and 6L cars with low fuel economy, longer term it
must surely be living on borrowed time.
>I suppose it depends on the persons expendable cash, in that if they
> can afford a $34000 to $45000 Commodore, then they can afford the
> petrol.
Those prices aren't high by UK standards (AUS $35k = œ15.5k, $45k = œ20k).
The Commodore is a lot of car for the money.
For a car of that spec in the UK you'd be looking at AUS $50k+ albeit
I don't see where such a large-engined saloon would fit into the UK
market. But then it's not made for the UK.
The nearest comparable car would I think be the Chrysler 300 - the only
American saloon car to ever succeed in the UK. Even two year down the
line it's holding its second-hand price better than BMWs and Mercedes.
It's won 69 awards in America - more than any other car (so say Chrysler).
Here, the 3L 300 costs from œ27,000 (Aus $60,000) to œ41,000 (Aus
$90,000).
As a matter of interest, although allegedly not very "eco-friendly", GM's
forthcoming Chevrolet Camaro (the return of a 1960s icon), is based on a
chassis platform developed by GM Holden in Oz.
If Oz follows the European trend and some US States, it won't so much
be the price of fuel that will lead to the downsizing of engines, but
legislation on tailpipe emissions and punitive taxation regimes on
the larger high emission vehicles.
In the UK, annual car tax ranges from nil - œ300.
But it won't be the people with large expensive cars who'll downsize,
it will be the midrange cars and - in the UK at any rate, company car
fleets.
Given the traffic densities in the UK, there's little case for many
people to have a car much bigger than 1600cc unless they tow a caravan.
Larger cars aren't bought for rational or practical reasons - it's an
emotional lifestyle choice - often a status symbol - "big boys toys".
>The Commodore has engine capacities up to 5 litres, for their V6 and
> V8 variants.
It's actually up to 6L!
The focus on large-engined cars is costing America its car industry.
Forty years ago General Motors alone had nearly 50% of the home market -
today, GM, Ford and Chrysler can't manage that between them. GM has 23.5%
and Ford sank below 15% in December.
Ford, Chrysler and GM - the "big three" all lose money. Big money.
All of Ford's overseas divisions - which make family sized and small cars,
are profitable, but in the home market Ford lost $12.6 billion in 2006 and
GM lost $39 billion in the third quarter of 2007 - the biggest loss in
history (which it says was a paper loss due to unused tax credits).
Chrysler has forecast a loss of $1.8 billion in 2008.
Yet Chrysler carries on undaunted and launched its new Dodge Ram pick-up
truck at the American International Auto Show a few days ago with 120
longhorn cattle being herded by 12 cowboys.
As a stunt, it backfired.
No-one seemed to think about the clear-up afterwards!
The wrong way to launch the wrong car, at the wrong time.
Chrysler sales in Europe are at an all time high, but at 238,000 vehicles
in 2007 it's small beer. They market five models in the UK - all quite
different and distinctive. Most models seem to be doing quite well, except
perhaps the Sebring.
You can see them here:
http://www.chrysler.co.uk/
The Crossfire - although criticised by motoring pundits for having a drive
train based on a 10-yr old Mercedes SLK, must be the most stylish sports
cars around from any angle. Very bonny.
The 300 looks like a Mafia staff car, though at a distance,
from the front, it could pass for a Bentley.
The PT Cruiser looks like a hot-rod car from the front
and a hearse from the back!
As fuel becomes more expensive and tailpipe emission controls become
tougher, the market for large cars is bound to edge downwards, be it
in Oz, the UK or the US.
Yet the focus at the Detroit Motor Show recently was on the biggest
pick-up trucks with the biggest engines, such as the Ford F150 and the
Dodge Ram.
The sale of these trucks (both as working vehicles and leisure vehicles)
is in decline. The industry is trying to sell what it can make - not make
what it can sell.
Bad news for Motown - good news for Toyota.
The F150 has been America's top seller for 31 years.
It used to sell 900,000 a year, now it's down to 700,000.
Still a heck of a lot of cars, and as a model, still profitable.
But the big three need to be strong in the developing market
for smaller fuel efficient low emission cars and they aren't.
It's a wake-up call.
>Conversely and surprisingly the second biggest seller,
>was the small 4 cylinder 1800cc Toyota Carola.
Toyota are strong in the UK market and have a reputation for reliability,
but they're not very stylish and won't turn many heads. They do however
produce a range of nine models to target each market segment from small
cars such as the Aygo and Yaris to the V8 Land Cruiser.
Toyota have been making cars here for 15 years, and
have produced 2.5 million cars in the UK to date.
(The Carolla has recently been superseded by the Auris in the UK).
According to company figures, Toyota is now the largest
car maker in the world, having overtaken GM.
Best wishes
David, G4EBT @ GB7FCR
Cottingham, East Yorkshire.
Message timed: 19:51 on 2008-Jan-30
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