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VK2AAB > FUEL 08.11.07 00:35l 70 Lines 3268 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 50448_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST
Subj: Public Transport & Busses
Path: DB0FHN<DB0MRW<DK0WUE<DB0RES<IK2XDE<I0TVL<VK2TGB<VK2IO<VK2AAB
Sent: 071107/2306Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:50448 [SYDNEY] FBB7.00i
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
What a co-incidence, I had just sent that last bulletin on hydrogen busses
and went to look for the article I mentioned and there was this article on
the inadequacy of the public transport fleet.
73 Barry VK2AAB
Public transport totally inadequate for oil shocks
Wednesday, 31 October 2007
ASPO presentation and news release from the National Bus Industry
Confederation Conference in Fremantle,
30th October 2007
Australia's public transport is completely inadequate to cope
with future oil shocks, a national bus industry conference was
told.
Bruce Robinson, Convenor of the Australian Association for the
Study of Peak Oil, warned of looming oil shortages when world oil
production starts to decline. A revolution or another war in the
Middle East could easily create another sudden oil crisis which
would make the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks look minor.
Australian transport authorities have no serious planning in
place to handle a major fuel shortage. Existing petrol rationing
plans (egg odds and evens number plate days) fail to consider the
lack of spare public transport capacity.
If petrol has to be rationed in a future oil shock, then it will
be essential to ration access to public transport as well. No
Australian city has anywhere near enough public transport
capacity to handle even a quarter of existing car travellers if
they need to use buses and trains instead. Elderly people, those
with disabilities, mothers with young children and people with
essential jobs, such as those working in hospitals, should be
given priority access to the limited public transport.
There is a significant chance that there will be oil shortages
within the term of the next Federal Government. However, neither
major party has any coherent strategy on how to prepare for an
oil supply emergency, nor how to tackle Peak Oil. This is the
forecast time when the rate of global oil production starts its
final decline after over a century of growth trends. This may be
happening now, or perhaps it may happen in 2012 or later.
Geological forces will preclude continual increases in the rate
of world oil production and lead to the unavoidable decline phase
starting soon. Market forces have been unable to arrest
declining production in our Bass Strait fields, the North Sea,
and Mexico's giant Cantarell field as just a few examples.
Australia's oil production has been declining since its peak in
2000. Excluding deepwater oilfields, output from 54 of the 65
largest oil-producing countries in the world is in decline. The
peak and then the decline of global oil production is likely to
occur in the near future, and we should be preparing for it.
Warning people of future petrol shortages, and preparing to
double the capacity of our public transport systems would be a
good first step to reduce the nation's high oil vulnerability
Contact Bruce Robinson, Convenor, ASPO-Australia www.ASPO-
Australia.org.au
08-9384-7409 0427 398 708 Full presentation available at
www.ASPO-Australia.org.au/References/Bruce/Bus-Industry-
Conference-v2d-sh.ppt
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