| |
VK2AAB > FUEL 26.10.07 04:28l 80 Lines 3617 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 49536_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST
Subj: Peak Oil is now or 2010.
Path: DB0FHN<DB0FOR<DB0MRW<DK0WUE<DB0RES<IK2XDE<I0TVL<VK2TGB<VK2IO<VK2WI<
VK2AAB
Sent: 071026/0150Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:49536 [SYDNEY] FBB7.00i
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
Hello All,
It seems almost certain that peak oil has already arrived.
We may stay on the plateau for another couple of years but whether we have no
time or a few years it is too late to stop the very significant economic
effects.
The politicains, except for three or four world wide, just simply do not want
to talk about it. So pay off all your loans and think about where your
savings are located. Anyone with shares in airlines or toll roads ?
73 Barry VK2AAB
============================================================================
1a/ Crude Oil - The Supply Outlook [Peak Oil report]
(Energy Watch Group, October 2007)
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Oil-report.32+M5d637b1e38d.0.html
Comment: A new report from the Energy Watch Group. Earlier this
year they published a report on Peak Coal, last year Peak
Uranium, both available here:
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/Reports.24+M5d637b1e38d.0.html.
The Peak Oil report states Peak Year was 2006. Maybe, but we are
not likely to be sure about that until well into 2008 if not
later. If we cannot raise global output in 2008, that would
suggest Peak is past. Many forecasts are converging on 2010-2012,
assuming 'all goes well'. The report contains some useful
sections, for example Annex 2 contains a "Critique of Oil Supply
Projections by USGS, EIA and IEA". Contains some very interesting
graphs, see figures 5 (Oil producing countries past peak) and 6
(Oil production of the oil majors from 1997 to 2007).
Report:
"Peak oil is now".
For quite some time, a hot debate is going on regarding peak oil.
Institutions close to the energy industry, like CERA, are
engaging in a campaign trying to "debunk" the "peak oil theory".
This paper is one of many by authors inside and outside ASPO (the
Organisation for the Study of Peak Oil) showing that peak oil is
anything but a "theory", it is real and we are witnessing it
already.
According to the scenario projections in this study, the peak of
world oil production was in 2006.
The timing of the peak in this study is by a few years earlier
than seen by other authors (like e.g. Campbell, ASPO, and
Skrebowski) who are also well aware of the imminent oil peak. One
reason for the difference is a more pessimistic assessment of the
potential of future additions to oil production, especially from
offshore oil and from deep sea oil due to the observed delays in
announced field developments. Another reason are earlier and
greater declines projected for key producing regions, especially
in the Middle East.
The most important finding is the steep decline of the oil
supply after peak.
This result - together with the timing of the peak - is obviously
in sharp contrast to the projections by the IEA. But the decline
is also more pronounced compared with the more moderate
projections by ASPO.
Yet, this result conforms very well with the recent findings of
Robelius in his doctoral thesis. This is all the more remarkable
because a different methodology and different data sources have
been used.
The projections for the global oil supply are as follows:
- 2006: 81 Mb/d
- 2020: 58 Mb/d (IEA: 1051 Mb/d)
- 2030: 39 Mb/d (IEA: 1162 Mb/d)
A regional analysis shows that, apart from Africa, all other
regions show declining
productions by 2020 compared to 2005.
By 2030, all regions show significant declines compared to 2005.
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
