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G0TEZ > FUEL 16.12.11 11:32l 54 Lines 2227 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 170139G0TEZ
Read: DK3UZ GUEST
Subj: Re: End of Growth VK2AAB
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Sent: 111216/0925Z @:GB7CIP.#32.GBR.EU #:20003 [Caterham Surrey GBR] $:170139G0
From: G0TEZ@GB7CIP.#32.GBR.EU
To : FUEL@WW
Thanks Barry, it is nice to get a reply. The problem is,not a lot of
people seem to understand exponentials, especially in money where it means
compound interest v simple interest.
I came up with the explanation involving a baby as in 'The more it eats,
the more it grows, the more it grows, the more it eats - repeat'
With babies as with all exponentials, there comes a stop, somewhere in the
teens, usually determined by genetics.
I used the example of a pocket calculator in my bull because it was
typical of the way a new invention sells slowly at a high price then hits
the knee of the curve, the sales scream up and the price plummets. I
actually resisted rushing out to buy both a pocket calculator and a
digital watch when the were forst introduced in the late 60s at about UKP
100. Both of my first items cost around UKP 10 two years after they were
introduced. I have done the same thing with VCRs, computers and CD
players. I think people are getting more careful about rushing out to buy
the latest tech now. I am thinking of 3D TV sets in particular.
I think your description of the cost of food is spot on.
As for distance, I still remember my French teacher (who was french) about
1970 saying that it should be far cheaper to import food such as lamb from
Europe than New Zealand. It never happened. I don't know why, I'm not an
economist but I think it will happen as fuel goes up.
Quoting:
> Yes Ian, the expotential function has very powerful effects.
> It was the advent of cheap fuel, coal at first then oil that enabled to big
> surge in world population.
> We use 10 units of energy for every unit of energy that we eat.
> So a reduction in affordable and available energy will have a big effect
ofood for people.
> The advent of localisation will be one means of coping with the problem, as it
> will reduce the long distance cartage of food.
> In fact Maltheus was right, there is a limit to growth. I have never heard
that> he put a time on the event, but it seems to be inevitable in one form or
another.
>
> 73 Barry VK2AAB
Thank you.
73 - Ian, G0TEZ @ GB7CIP
Message timed: 08:36 on 2011-Dec-16 GMT
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