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VK6BE > FUEL 12.12.11 03:20l 79 Lines 3670 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8B0242VK6BE
Read: DK3UZ GUEST
Subj: Re: PS End of Growth
Path: DB0FHN<DB0FOR<DB0MRW<DK0WUE<DB0RES<IK2XDE<HB9TVW<DB0ANF<CX2SA<VE3UIL<
VK6ZRT
Sent: 111212/0037Z @:VK6ZRT.#BUN.#WA.AUS.OC #:10769 [Boyanup] $:8B0242VK6BE
From: VK6BE@VK6ZRT.#BUN.#WA.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
I think we have been talking at cross purposes Barry. I thought you were
talking about peak oil because of oil running out. I would have no
argument against the fact of peak oil consumption peaking because of
countries using less oil due to rising cost or any other similar factor.
In fact I have contributed to this myself through buying another car which
uses much less petrol than the one I had last year.I have reduced my
consumption considerably and I know many others who have done the same.
And then others are going for dual power cars with electric motive power
becoming a factor. I think then that we mostly agree on that.
As far as many of the dire predictions are concerned, yes , I am a sceptic
as so many of those experts in many fields have been so wrong. We can go
back as far as Malthus for that. He was wrong. It didn't happen; he over
looked some important factors and that is still happening witness Tim
Flannery's predictions of doom for Australia. His predictions of extreme
drought and failing water supplies by 2007 were followed by record
devastating floods. How can he be so wrong?
Global warming??? Subsequent lack of rainfall etc., etc. I think the globe
has warmed before, and we had an ice age. Anyone who predicts big changes
in climate in our immediate future has yet to be proved correct. Our own
Tim Flannery got it wrong regarding water supplies in Australia. With a
blare of trumpets he predicted that our capital cities would be out of
water or almost dry by 2007. He was quite wrong. The opposite happened.
They were drenched in record rains. Mind you his expertise is not in
climatology so perhaps he should have kept his mouth shut!
Global warming? Maybe but I got these from a weather report last night;
Temperatures in various places on the globe:
OSLO: MIN: 0 MAX: 6C
MOSCOW: -1 1
SEOUL: 0 6
BEIJING: -3 5
BERLIN: 1 6
DUBLIN: 3 8
HELSINKI: -2 4
NEW YORK: -1 8
VANCOUVER: -1 3
SHANGHAI: 4 10
PRAGUE: -2 4
CHICAGO: -3 3
Global warming? I would hate to be in one of those places if there was
global cooling!
Meantime I sit at 8 a.m. on December 12th in West Australia where we were
to have massive drought according to some experts with a heater running
to keep warm after about three months of rainy weather, and that in a
state where Flannery told us that Perth would be the first deserted city
because it would run out of water and the city would have to be abandoned
- Australia's first ghost town!!Adelaide's dams would be dry by 2007? They
are not. Pardon my scepticism but the experts have got so many things
wrong so many times. Maybe the globe is warming but it certainly won't be
a problem in the lifetime of any of us here present. And meantime much of
the northern hemisphere shivers as do we so far this summer on the south
coast of Australia.
Happy Christmas and prosperous New Year to all. Genuine good wish not
sarcasm!!!
Bob VK6BE.
>>
Bob, remember a year or two back how you said peak oil would not happen
for
decades ? Well the OECD's International Energy Authority (IEA) has changed
their outlook and stated that crude oil production peaked in 2006.
Oil production has not increased since 2005 and the guesswork has now
changed to trying to work out when production will start its inevitable
decline.
Educated guesses range from 2012 to 2018 with a few saying 2020+.
However increased demand is pushig up prices and pushing some countries to
use less, eg the US usage has dropped by 2 million barrels a day due to
the state of their economy.
So Bob, it is already happening, it is not a forecast it is history.
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