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VK2AAB > FUEL 11.12.11 22:46l 24 Lines 1083 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 2876_VK2AAB
Read: DK3UZ GUEST
Subj: Re: End of Growth
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CX2SA<VK2DOT<VK2IO<VK2AAB
Sent: 111211/2001Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:2876 [SYDNEY] $:2876_VK2AAB
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
Yes Bob, I agree with almost everything you wrote.
The problem with the alternatives you write of is scaleability.
The problem relates to the way we use GDP to repay loans and pay interest.
As the cost of energy increases it reduces the surplus that is normally used
to repay loans and interest.
This what set off the prime loans problem in the US.
We need growth to produce the surplus that is used to repay loans.
It is precisely this that has got the US & Europe into their current problem.
Low growth is present in virtually all economies and there is no likelyhood
that energy prices will fall any time soon.
In fact, the forward price for WTI oil delivered next December is $150.
In our case Tapis is normally about $15 higher than WTI so the traders are
betting on an increase.
These increases will just about wipe out our growth.
Your opinion, Bob is very common but is the result of finding it hard to accept
that such a thing could possibly happen. However it really is just a result of
the arithmetic.
73 Barry VK2AAB
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