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VK2AAB > FUEL 22.01.11 04:33l 87 Lines 5451 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: 2011 a Pivitol Year ?
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VK2AAB
Sent: 110122/0025Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:646 [SYDNEY] $:646_VK2AAB
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
Some fuel for thought.
Barry VK2AAB
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The Peak Oil Crisis: 2011 – A Pivotal Year?
CounterCurrents, 30 December 2010
Wall Street is getting nervous. As oil prices continue to creep up and as more
evidence accumulates that the age of ever-growing energy production and economic
growth is coming to an end, a specter is haunting the great investment banks
and brokerage houses of New York. For five years now Wall Street and its
chorus in the financial media have ignored or denied that global oil
production has reached a plateau after 150 years of steady growth.
Those who did admit to a problem were quick to assert that the markets would
find substitutes first in the form of endless quantities of coal
waiting to be exploited and more recently 100 years' worth of shale gas would
come seamlessly to the rescue.
The nervousness of course is that once global energy production starts to
decline, capitalism as we have known it for the last few centuries will no
longer be the same. While some new form of an economic system will evolve, the
transition is likely to be long and painful. Many, if not most, jobs in the
financial industry will simply melt away. Hence, for many, putting off the
fateful day when we have to admit the inevitable is much preferred solution.
The events of 2008 when oil shot up briefly to $147 a barrel and the global
economy trembled for months are still fresh in many minds. The western world's
banking system and Detroit had to be bailed out by the increasingly insolvent
U.S. and European governments. Had not oil prices quickly reversed as demand for
oil products faltered and oil plunged to $32 a barrel, we would have been living
in a different world right now.
As we enter 2011, the denials that significant change is coming continue.
Oil prices continue to rise, but until recently they have been met with the
idea oil that could go up a bit more, but certainly not enough to damage the
economic recovery. Oil may get to over $100 a barrel shortly it certainly will
not go much further. In the last few weeks, however, a few as yet faint voices
in the media have been adding a sentence or two to the effect that all might not
be as well as hoped.
So where are we? A few weeks ago the most ominous news of year came out of
Beijing when it was announced in muted voice that from here on out China's coal
production would probably not be growing much further. Chinese coal, of course,
is among the miracles of our time. Starting at around 100 million tons per year
when Mao Zedong took over the country, by the turn of the century annual
production had increased to 1 billion tons. Then production really took off with
output climbing to circa 3.2 billion tons a decade later. With oil production
faltering and production of much of the world's industrial output shifting to
China,
it was this steady increase in coal production that fueled China's and
therefore much of the world's economic growth for the last decade.
Now, with this final surge in the world's production of fossil fuels coming to
an end the outlook for the global economy changes dramatically. Beijing, which
is wedded to achieving an annual GDP growth of 8-10 percent, is already stepping
up its imports of coal and is vigorously pursuing means of locking up as much
foreign fossil fuel resources as the foreigners are willing to sell. If Beijing
is unsuccessful in increasing its coal imports to the extent needed in the next
few years, then it is likely to turn to increasing imports of oil and LNG.
The IEA says that during 2010 global demand for oil grew by 2.5 million barrels
a day (b/d) and reports that during the 3rd quarter the annual rate of demand
increased to a "giddy" 3.3 million b/d. As rates of growth in consumption this
fast obviously cannot go on much longer in the face of very slow to flat
increases in production, the IEA is saying that the increase in demand in 2011
will slow to an average of 1.3 million b/d.
Just to support the 3rd quarters increase in demand, global stockpiles have been
dropping by 1.3 million b/d. Thus far Saudi Arabia, which is the only country
claiming substantial surplus production capacity, has shown little inclination
to increase production.
Trends for the next few months do not suggest that a major drop in demand is yet
in sight. The northern hemisphere from Chicago through Europe to Japan is
gripped by some unusually cold weather which will guarantee higher oil and coal
consumption. China is still beset by widespread coal shortages and the
accompanying power outages which guarantees demand for imported coal and oil to
run auxiliary power generators will stay high.
Some are already saying that the IEA's forecast of a 1.3 million b/d increase
for next year is much too low. The big unknown for the coming years is the size
and availability of OPEC's spare capacity. If much of the 5 or 6 million b/d of
productive capacity that OPEC claims to have in reserve does not really exist or
cannot be opened in a timely manner, then much higher oil prices seem likely by
spring. This, of course, will reduce demand again and we are off on another cycle
of falling demand, more economic damage, and eventually lower prices. No matte
what happens, 2011 is shaping up to be an interesting year - it could just be a
pivotal one.
http://www.countercurrents.org/whipple301210.htm
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