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VK2AAB > FUEL 29.11.09 07:47l 43 Lines 1824 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 22681_VK2WI
Read: GUEST
Subj: Where to now, brown cow ?
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From: VK2AAB@VK2WI.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
The discussion and and argument has changed.
There is little or no discussion of when but it is all
about how the effects will be felt.
Some argue that we will go through a series of recoveries and financial
crashes as exlained in this article;
http://aspo-usa.com/2009proceedings/Dave_Cohen_Oct_12_2009.pdf
Still other argue for a slow reduction in economic activity limited by
the production level of crude oil and liquids, supplemented by natural
gas.
This is probably the most drama free scenario. It would let us down
gently enabling us to gradually over ten to 15 years adapt our mode of
living.
However the "Big Crash" believers say that because our world economy is
so integrated with manufacturing of components spread all over the world
and being so dependant on cheap transport and just in time systems that
we will suffer a systemic crash as shortages start occuring.
Fundermentally this particually applies to food production, complicated
by yearly cycles and world wide supply chains.
I have always subscibed to the 2nd option, the slow descent, but I am
becoming more doubtful that such a relatively benign outcomes is possible.
None of the experts I have read have studied the effect of the upcoming
emmissions trading schemes on the energy descent effects. Likewise as
governments have made strong effort to actively ignore the energy problem,
the UK having ignored its own report, as did the Australian government,
will make the whole situation dramatically worse.
I am sure they will not react until one of their ministerial cars finds
the service station closed while awaiting a delivery, and they will then
say, "Why didn't you warn us of this ?".
NB Peak Oil + liquids occured in JUly 2008.
Peak Crude Oil occured in May 2005.
73 Barry VK2AAB
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