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VK2AAB > FUEL 12.06.09 10:16l 46 Lines 1956 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3006_VK2AAB
Read: DJ6VI GUEST
Subj: Prof Kjell Aleklett's talk
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From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
As I mentioned in a previous bulletin I attended a talk by the chairman of
the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas, Prof Kjell Aleklett.
The talk was an update on the supply & demand situation.
His Global Energy Study Group at Upsalla University has published a paper in
which they show that the OECD's International Energy Authority (IEA) has made
false assumptions of "Yet to be Discovered" oil.
The assumption was that discovery would continue at historical rates.
To meet the IEA assumptions would require the discovery of four fields
each equivalent to the Saudi Arabian production between now and 2020.
As new fields have all been progressively smaller such discoveries are
considered impossible.
To illustrate the scale of the problem Kjell gave the example of Japan.
To supply Japan a 2 Million barrel oil tanker has to arrive in Japan every 10
Hours. Because of the distance 100 oil tankers of that size are at sea bound
for Japan at any time.
The US requires an oil tanker to arrive every 4 hours.
The airlines are not just in a supply squeeze but as the world demand for
diesal has been increasing and diesal is more profitable the refinaries
are much more interested in producing diesal than aviation fuels.
To summ up the Upsalla group has moved its peak oil prediction from 2012 to
2008.
There is no doubt that we have a very difficult time ahead of us.
Food production is the major worry as it seems impossible to obtain enough
energy to produce food for 6 billion people let alone the projected 10
billion.
Kjell showed a slide with 1000 slaves pulling a car. These slaves were the
energy equivalent of 50 litres of petrol !
Another slide showed 100 millitres of petrol producea 1 Kwhr, enough energy
to haul a normal car to the top of the Eifell tower.
It is this energy density that will be hard to replace.
73 Barry VK2AAB
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