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VK2AAB > FUEL 04.04.09 08:18l 96 Lines 5071 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 833_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST
Subj: G20M Brown, Rudd OBAMA err We Forgot
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From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
Oh Dear Oh Dear Oh Dear;
Would you believe our inestimable leaders forgot to
ask if there was going to be enough energy to fullfill their plans.
Unfortunately the Global Energy Sydtems Group at Upsalla University has blown
the whistle. I hope what usually happens to whistle blowers does not happen
this time.
The source article with graphs is available below.
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48530
73 Barry VK2AAB
--------------------------
Not enough oil for the G20 package
by Kjell Aleklett
(On April 4 the Swedish newspaper Uppsala Nya Tidning published this article
in Swedish (read it in Swedish). Michael Lardelli has translated it to
English.)
-AK
The world's wealthiest nations, the G20 group, have decided to light a fire
but have forgotten a very important detail - to check whether there is
sufficient fuel to enable the fire to burn. Historically we have never had
global economic growth without a simultaneous increase in the use of energy.
This means, primarily, an increase in the use of fossil fuels. For a few
nations - China, USA, Russia, India, Australia and South Africa - coal is a
very important fuel. However, the most important fuel for the world economy is
oil. All nations of the world use oil.
When the economies of different nations are compared, one usually compares
their GDP(PPP), Gross Domestic Product (Purchasing Power Parity) per capita.
If one furthermore compares how much oil nations use one can see that, since
the Second World War, all nations have had to increase their oil use to get
economic growth. If we compare how much oil is needed per 1000 dollar GDP
(PPP) per person we get a suitable figure for comparison. The amount of oil
different nations use varies. In 1980 Sweden, together with the USA, was the
worst in the world since we needed the most oil. Nuclear energy and increased
use of biofuels have helped us in Sweden to improve but we are still not as
good as, for example, France, Germany and the United Kingdom.
During the last 20 years we have had global economic growth of approximately
3% per annum. Fuel use in the form of oil has increased, on average, by half
of this rate, i.e. 1.5% per annum. In the future prognoses made by the
International Energy Agency, IEA, they believe that we can increase our
efficiency of fuel use but we will still need more oil. The documents that
resulted from the G20 meeting assume that this fuel will exist to allow future
global growth.
To get an appreciation of the scale of the task we can examine the economic
growth that the world experienced from 2003 until 2007. In 2003 oil
consumption was 77 million barrels per day and in 2007 it was around 85
million barrels per day, i.e. an increase of 10 percent. At the moment
consumption is around 84 million barrels per day. If the stimulus package that
the G20 group decided on is to generate the same amount of growth as seen in
the 2003 to 2007 period then we will need an increase of 8 to 9 million
barrels per day during the next 5 years. Such an increase is not possible.
The Global Energy Systems group at Uppsala University has just published an
article in the scientific journal Energy Policy (see article) in which we show
that oil production from those fields that are currently in production will
decrease by 6 percent per year during the next 5 years. This means a decrease
in the rate of production by 18 million barrels per day after 5 years. The G20
nations want to increase oil use but the forces of Nature say that there will
be a decrease. For the G20 nations to get what they want the world's oil
industry would need to bring online new production of 25 million barrels per
day over the next 5 years.
The USA-based company CERA has studied all the projects that the oil industry
currently plans to bring online in the coming years. Last summer they arrived
at an optimistic estimate that saw 14 million barrels per day of new
production. One week ago they revised this increase downwards by 7.6 million
barrels per day since companies are now postponing projects.
The same nations that now require increased oil consumption will meet in
December with the world's other nations in Copenhagen. They will then discuss
what measures they can take to reduce oil consumption. They do not discuss
what volumes of renewable energy will be needed but we have made an initial
preliminary estimate and we find that 30 million barrels of oil per day must
be replaced with renewable fuels and electricity by 2030 to keep a GDP(PPP)
growth rate of 3 percent. What the G20 group should discuss is what
investments will be required for this transformation of the energy system to
become reality.
Kjell Aleklett, Professor of Physics
Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University, www.fysast.uu.se/ges
President of ASPO International, the International Association for the Study
of Peak Oil & Gas, www.peakoil.net
Mobile: +70 425 0604
Email: kjell.aleklett@fysast.uu.se
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