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VK2AAB > FUEL 18.03.09 09:44l 31 Lines 1160 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 183_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST
Subj: Peak Oil is Now.
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Sent: 090317/2233Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:183 [SYDNEY] FBB7.00i $:183_VK2AA
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
PEAK OIL NOW
As most of you are aware I have been following the peak oil scene for some
years.
I had personally thought it would occur around 2012 or 2014 at the latest
for all liquids.
It now is certain that peak crude oil occurred in May 2005 and that peak oil
all liquids occurred in the middle of 2008 around the time that the price
peaked at US$147 per barrel.
What are the implications of this ? Due to the financial collapse
that coincided with the peak, demand has fallen dramatically by about
5 million barrels a day since October 2008.
As the depletion rate is thought to be around 2% per year, or about 2 Mbpd
per year we have at current level of economic activity 2 or 3 years before
shortages will become apparent.
However economic recovery will reduce that time significantly,
depending on the rate of recovery. None of the experts have yet published
their predictions on the rate of depletion vs the rate of demand.
As more substantial predictionsappear I will update the information.
Here is the link to The Oil Drum page.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5177
73 Barry VK2AAB
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