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VK2AAB > FUEL 09.03.09 03:20l 70 Lines 2604 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8877_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST
Subj: Rearview Peak Oil 2005 !
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Sent: 090308/2319Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:8877 [Sydney] $:8877_VK2AAB
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FUEL@WW
It has always been said that it will only be in the rear view mirror
that we will recognise peak oil.
There is an increasing amount of opinion by the real experts that
Peak Oil occured in 2005.
The following URL is about Saudi Arabia, but as the saying goes;
When Saudi peaks, so does the world.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5154#more
Governments continue to push their heads further into the sand.
The NSW Government refuses to even consider the implications of
peak oil for future planning of transport in NSW.
http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/5168#more
Submissions to the Commonwealth Government’s National Aviation
Policy (NAP) Green paper have just closed. Unfortunately, but
not surprisingly, there is no mention of peak oil nor its impacts
in the Green Paper.
Indeed the Green Paper predicts that domestic aviation demand
will increase by 4% per annum until 2025-2026.
http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/5161#more
The current reduction in airline routes and services can be expected
to continue their downward trajectory.
The increased efficiency of new aircraft will extend the downward
curve but the eventual collapse is inevitable.
Only government subsidised services to remote areas will survive.
Financial gurus are forcasting a recovery from the current crisis
to start from late 2009 and continue through 2010.
As demand for oil picks up and the current surplus of supply over
demand is depleted, the price will rise.
At some point the market will sense the impending intersection of
these two parameters. Then significant rises in the price of all
energy sources will occur.
At that time the economic recovery around the world will cease.
Any local further improvement will be at the expense of the poorer
countries of the world as the world average will be maintained.
Now the above senario is my interpretation of all the expert opinion
that I have read.
All this information is available to you. I suggest the following URLs
as the best starting point. ASPO is an academic organisation that
commenced at Upsala University and is now a world wide organisation.
http://www.peakoil.net/
http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/
http://www.energybulletin.net/index.php
http://uk.theoildrum.com/
http://www.odac-info.org/
Don't get diverted into the survivalist sites, some of them are
right off the planet. The sites above have the most conservative
and technically orintated contributors, many of whom have worked
in the oil indusrty all their lives.
Sorry for such a gloomy outlook, but that is the real world.
73 Barry VK2AAB
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