| |
VK2AAB > FOOD 30.06.08 13:30l 74 Lines 4642 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4709_VK2AAB
Read: GUEST DH3GS
Subj: Next Peak Phosphorus
Path: DB0FHN<DB0FOR<DB0MRW<DK0WUE<I0TVL<VK2TGB<VK2IO<VK2WI<VK2AAB
Sent: 080629/0631Z @:VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC #:4709 [Sydney] $:4709_VK2AAB
From: VK2AAB@VK2AAB.#SYD.NSW.AUS.OC
To : FOOD@WW
This says it all.
73 Barry VK2AAB
--------------------------
Scientists warn of lack of vital phosphorus as biofuels raise demand
Leo Lewis, The Times, 23 Jun 2008
Battered by soaring fertiliser prices and rioting rice farmers, the global
food industry may also have to deal with a potentially catastrophic future
shortage of phosphorus, scientists say.
Researchers in Australia, Europe and the United States have given warning that
the element, which is essential to all living things, is at the heart of
modern farming and has no synthetic alternative, is being mined, used and
wasted as never before.
Massive inefficiencies in the "farm-to-fork" processing of food and the
soaring appetite for meat and dairy produce across Asia is stoking demand for
phosphorus faster and further than anyone had predicted. "Peak phosphorus",
say scientists, could hit the world in just 30 years. Crop-based biofuels,
whose production methods and usage suck phosphorus out of the agricultural
system in unprecedented volumes, have, researchers in Brazil say, made the
problem many times worse. Already, India is running low on matches as
factories run short of phosphorus; the Brazilian Government has spoken of a
need to nationalise privately held mines that supply the fertiliser industry
and Swedish scientists are busily redesigning toilets to separate and collect
urine in an attempt to conserve the precious element.
Dana Cordell, a senior researcher at the Institute for Sustainable Futures at
the University of Technology in Sydney, said: "Quite simply, without
phosphorus we cannot produce food. At current rates, reserves will be depleted
in the next 50 to 100 years.
She added: "Phosphorus is as critical for all modern economies as water. If
global water supply were as concentrated as global phosphorus supply, there
would be much, much deeper concern. It is amazing that more attention is not
being paid to ensuring phosphorus security."
In the past 14 months, the price of the raw material - phosphate rock - has
surged by more than 700 per cent to more than $367 (#185) per tonne. As well
as putting pressure on food prices, some researchers believe that the risk of
a future phosphorus shortage blows a hole in the concept of biofuels as a
"renewable" source of energy. Ethanol is not truly renewable if the essential
fundamental element is, in reality, growing more scarce, researchers say.
Within a few decades, according to forecasts used by scientists at Linkvping
University, in Sweden, a "peak phosphorus" crunch could represent a serious
threat to agriculture as global reserves of high-quality phosphate rock go
into terminal decline.
Because supplies of phosphates suitable for mining are so limited, a new
geopolitical map may be drawn around the remaining reserves - a dynamic that
would give a sudden boost to the global importance of Morocco, which holds 32
per cent of the world's proven reserves. Beyond Morocco, the world's chief
phosphorus reserves for export are concentrated in Western Sahara, South
Africa, Jordan, Syria and Russia.
Natural distribution of phosphorus could create a small number of new
"resource superpowers" with a pricing control over fertilisers that some
suspect could end up rivalling Opec's control over crude oil. The economic
battle to secure phosphorus supply may already have begun. China, according to
US Geological Survey estimates, has 13 billion tonnes of phosphate rock
reserves and has started to guard them more carefully. Beijing has just
imposed a 135 per cent tariff on phosphate rock exports to try to secure
enough for its own farmers, alarming the fertiliser industry, as well as
Western Europe and India, which are both entirely reliant on phosphorus
imports. With America's own phosphorus production down 20 per cent over the
past three years, it has begun to ship phosphorus in from Morocco.
American projections suggest that global phosphorus demand could grow at 2.3
per cent annually just to feed the growing world population, an estimate that
was made before the growth of biofuels.
Few observers hold out hope of a discovery of phosphorus large enough to meet
the continued growth in demand. The ore itself takes millions of years to
form, and the prospect of extracting phosphorus from the sea bed presents
massive technological and financial challenges.
The answer, say crop scienctists, lies in better husbandry of phosphorus
reserves: an effort that may require the creation of an international body to
monitor the use and recycling of phosphorus.
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
