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LU9DCE > ALERT 08.06.25 10:34l 525 Lines 16739 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4374_LU9DCE
Subj: STORM PREDICTION CENTER 08-JUN25
Path: DB0FHN<DB0RKB<DK0WUE<HB9ON<HB9ON<PI8ZTM<PI8LAP<GB7BED<GB7YEW<LU9DCE
Sent: 250608/0731Z 4374@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389
WW 389 SEVERE TSTM AR MS OK TX 080025Z - 080700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2025
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 725 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER CONVECTION. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR
AND POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
SCATTERED SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF ONE
OR MORE CLUSTERS CAN FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A TORNADO OR
TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DE QUEEN AR TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS MS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 386...WW 387...WW 388...
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO
2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A
FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR
29025.
...GLEASON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0389 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 389
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..06/08/25
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 389
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-019-025-027-039-041-043-053-057-059-061-
069-073-077-079-081-091-095-099-103-107-109-133-139-080440-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
DESHA DREW GRANT
HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD
JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEE
LINCOLN LITTLE RIVER MILLER
MONROE NEVADA OUACHITA
PHILLIPS PIKE SEVIER
UNION
MSC003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-025-027-033-043-051-053-057-
071-081-083-087-093-095-097-103-105-107-115-117-119-133-135-137-
139-141-143-145-151-155-159-161-080440-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALCORN ATTALA BENTON
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 388 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0388 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW OGB TO
30 S CLT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1188
..DEAN..06/08/25
ATTN...WFO...CAE...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 388
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
SCC009-017-027-055-061-075-079-085-080340-
SC
. SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAMBERG CALHOUN CLARENDON
KERSHAW LEE ORANGEBURG
RICHLAND SUMTER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0387 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 387
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..DEAN..06/07/25
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 387
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NMC059-080040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
UNION
TXC111-205-359-080040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM HARTLEY OLDHAM
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 386 STATUS REPORTS
WW 0386 STATUS UPDATES
STATUS REPORT ON WW 386
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW AUO
TO 35 SSE ATL TO 20 SSW AHN TO 25 N AHN TO 50 NW AND TO 40 SE TYS
TO 20 NNE TYS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184
..DEAN..06/07/25
ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 386
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC009-021-035-053-059-079-105-119-133-141-145-147-159-169-171-
195-197-207-211-215-219-221-237-257-263-265-269-293-301-317-
080040-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN BIBB BUTTS
CHATTAHOOCHEE CLARKE CRAWFORD
ELBERT FRANKLIN GREENE
HANCOCK HARRIS HART
JASPER JONES LAMAR
MADISON MARION MONROE
MORGAN MUSCOGEE OCONEE
OGLETHORPE PUTNAM STEPHENS
TALBOT TALIAFERRO TAYLOR
UPSON WARREN WILKES
NCC087-099-173-175-080040-
NC
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SPC MD 1191
MD 1191 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK
AND NORTH TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1191
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 080327Z - 080530Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF CUMULUS REMAINS EVIDENT LATE THIS EVENING ON
IR IMAGERY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
TX, NEAR A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE. ONE ATTEMPT AT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY NEAR THE RED RIVER, AND 00Z CAM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ASIDE FROM MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY NEBULOUS,
RESULTING IN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE AND DURATION INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, STRONG
BUOYANCY, AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
SUPERCELL THREAT IF ANY STORMS CAN BECOME SUSTAINED WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE IMMINENT.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 06/08/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 34249545 33319538 32919541 32789590 32729718 32669805
32369922 33009995 33459994 34079966 34329769 34349587
34249545
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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SPC MD 1190
MD 1190 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387... FOR NORTHEAST NM INTO
PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NM INTO PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND
SOUTH PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387...
VALID 080248Z - 080415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL MOVING INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE HAS
RECENTLY PRODUCED REPORTS OF 2+ INCH HAIL, WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE STORMS ONGOING ACROSS NORTHEAST NM.
WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF
THESE STORMS, INCREASING CINH WITH TIME CREATES UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE LONGEVITY OF THE ONGOING SUPERCELLS. SOME 00Z CAM
GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT INTO LATE TONIGHT, AND
AN EVOLVING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN
ONGOING STORMS OR DEVELOP NEW CELLS LATER TONIGHT.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS, EVEN
IF CONVECTION BECOMES SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT MAY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE ONGOING THREAT, THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WATCH
ISSUANCE IN UNCERTAIN, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
AN UPTICK IN SEVERE POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING CONVECTION.
..DEAN/GLEASON.. 06/08/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36890452 36830376 35820228 34680112 34050139 34020198
34220270 34600296 35380338 35660354 36400441 36890452
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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SPC MD 1189
MD 1189 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1189
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN
TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389...
VALID 080237Z - 080430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUES AND PROBABLY WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS, IS ONGOING, GENERALLY
FOCUSED ALONG A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSING NEAR-SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION FOR THE SEASONABLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS INCREASED SOME, WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE
COOLING, BUT STRONGER CELLS ARE LIKELY STILL BEING MAINTAINED BY
INFLOW INTO UPDRAFTS OF AIR CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
WITH SUBTLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE ARK-LA-TEX AND ARK-LA-MISS VICINITIES THROUGH LATE EVENING, AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY
WILL BE MAINTAINED ANOTHER SEVERAL HOURS. PROBABILITIES FOR
CONTINUING ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
SMALL UPSCALE GROWING CLUSTER, MIGHT BE HIGHEST FROM THE OXFORD
TOWARD COLUMBUS MS VICINITIES, WHERE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGEST, ALONG THE REMNANT TRAILING FLANK OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
..KERR.. 06/08/2025
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 34709217 34928876 33158841 33199217 33199371 34269588
34709217
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
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SPC JUN 8, 2025 0100 UTC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC 0100Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2025
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
A LINE OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH A CONTINUED
DAMAGING GUST THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS, ACCOMPANIED BY AN OCCASIONAL
WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A BRIEF TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY. FINALLY, STRONG STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND/HAIL ALONG THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW IS OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS, WITH A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
AND CORRESPONDING DEEPER-LAYER SHEAR IS OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COASTLINE, WHERE MODERATE TO
STRONG BUOYANCY REMAINS IN PLACE. DESPITE OVERALL WEAK SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT, MULTIPLE AREAS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE FORCING MECHANISMS, PERSIST AMID THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE BUOYANCY/SHEAR TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE HAZARDS.
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
MULTIPLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE IN PROGRESS ALONG THE TX/NM
BORDER, AND THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST ALONG A DIFFUSE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT. THIS
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL OK. IT
IS UNCLEAR IF ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
AND FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO WEST-CENTRAL TX GIVEN
OVERALL WEAK FORCING. HOWEVER, SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE, 50+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE ARE
IN PLACE, AND MODESTLY AGITATED CU PREVAIL ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES. AS SUCH, SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES WERE KEPT IN PLACE
DESPITE CONCERNS FOR STORM INITIATION AND COVERAGE GIVEN THE
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
FORM.
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER MCS, AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR
MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABLE
TO REACH 90 F AMID LOW TO MID 70S F DEWPOINTS, YIELDING 2000-3000
MLCAPE AMID WEAK MLCINH. SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHERN AR AND ARE POISED TO DRIFT INTO MS AND PERHAPS WESTERN
AL INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OVERSPREADING THIS ENVIRONMENT, SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.
...CAROLINAS...
A LONG-LIVED COLD-POOL-DRIVEN MCS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ACROSS SC,
WITH A HISTORY OF PROLIFIC DAMAGING GUST PRODUCTION (INCLUDING
MEASURED SEVERE GUSTS). THIS MCS IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD AT ROUGHLY
40-50 KTS, SUGGESTING THAT THE COLD POOL IS STILL POTENTIALLY
DEEP/STRONG, WITH INTERNAL-FORCING MECHANISMS SUCH AS A REAR-INFLOW
JET PRESENT. WHEN ALSO CONSIDERING THE MID TO UPPER 80S F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES PRECEDING THE MCS, ALONG WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE,
AMPLE BUOYANCY REMAINS FOR CONTINUED DAMAGING/SEVERE GUST PRODUCTION
FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING, PERHAPS TO THE ATLANTIC
COASTLINE.
...PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY...
A FEW SMALL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, WITH A RECENT HISTORY OF AT LEAST
ONE TORNADO, PERSIST AHEAD OF A BROADENING MCV IN EASTERN MO. GIVEN
AMPLE BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THESE STORMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION,
INCLUDING 150+ J/KG 0-3 KM CAPE, 50+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR,
AND AT LEAST MODEST AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL-ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY, THESE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY PERSIST WITH A SPARSE WIND
GUST/TORNADO THREAT FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.
..SQUITIERI.. 06/08/2025
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