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KF5JRV > WX 28.04.25 15:33l 112 Lines 5564 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7357_KF5JRV
Read: GUEST
Subj: NWS USA WX Forecast - Apr 28
Path: DB0FHN<DB0RKB<DK0WUE<PD0LPM<VE3CGR<KF5JRV
Sent: 250428/1105Z 7357@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA BPQ6.0.23
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Apr 28 2025
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 28 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 30 2025
...Additional rainfall and snowmelt bring flooding concerns to
portions of the northern High Plains of Montana early today...
...Outbreak of severe weather, including strong tornadoes,
expected for portions of the Midwest/Plains today, followed by
strong to severe thunderstorms possible for interior Northeast on
Tuesday...
...Potentially significant flash flooding increasing across
portions of the southern Plains beginning on Tuesday...
...Warm air spreading eastward from the central U.S. to the
eastern U.S. heading into midweek...
During the course of the next couple of days, most of the active
weather associated with our ongoing Spring weather pattern is
forecast to impact the mid-section of the country. A deep
upper-level trough exiting the Rockies is currently interacting
with a cold airmass dipping south from Canada into the northern
High Plains. This interaction is leading to the formation of a
low pressure system over the northern Plains. With additional
lift provided by terrain interactions, the higher elevation of
southern Montana is expected to receive additional snowfall today
while the lower elevations in close proximity remain under the
threat of flash flooding due to the prospect of additional
rainfall and snowmelt in the vicinity. The threat of flooding is
expected to diminish by later today as the mixed rain/snow spreads
farther south into Wyoming before tapering off tonight. Across
the northern Plains, however, an expanding area of moderate to
locally heavy rain is expected to spread quickly eastward as the
center of the intensifying low pressure system moves quickly into
the upper Midwest by this evening. On the warm side of the
system, the building up of instability interacting with vigorous
dynamics ahead of the low pressure system will likely lead to an
outbreak of severe weather over the upper Midwest, especially by
later today into the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center
anticipates a moderate risk of severe weather over portions of the
upper Mississippi Valley where strong tornadoes, very large hail,
and damaging winds are expected. An enhanced risk of severe
weather extends southwestward ahead of a trailing cold front
through the Mid-Missouri Valley, with a Slight Risk extending
further southwestward through the southern Plains. Locally heavy
rainfall may also lead to some isolated instances of flash
flooding as well. By Tuesday morning, as the elongated low
pressure system tracks into southern Canada, colder air behind the
system could change the rain to a period of wet snow across the
upper Great Lakes area. Strong and gusty northwesterly winds will
sweep across the northern Plains today and then through the Great
Lakes on Tuesday.
Across the southern Plains, the trailing portion of the cold front
is forecast to stall later on Tuesday. As residual upper-level
troughing ejects out of the southern Rockies, an episode of heavy
rain is expected to emerge over the southern Plains on Tuesday.
Repetitive rounds of storms in vicinity of the stalling boundary
over an already sensitive region given recent rainfall is
anticipated to result in a moderate risk of excessive rainfall for
portions of southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas with scattered
to numerous instances of flash flooding possible by later on
Tuesday. A broader Slight Risk extends northeastward towards the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and southwestward into the Texas Big
Country for additional scattered instances of flash flooding.
More generally, scattered to widespread storms are expected along
the cold front from the interior Northeast southwestward through
the Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. The Storm
Prediction Center has included a slight risk of severe weather as
some storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds,
along with an enhanced risk across interior Northeast for Tuesday
evening ahead of an approaching cold front. It appears that
additional rounds of heavy rain and embedded severe thunderstorms
will impact Oklahoma and vicinity Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning near the stalled frontal boundary, leading to a continued
threat of flash flooding.
Elsewhere, very dry conditions along with strong, gusty winds will
keep a critical fire weather risk today across portions of New
Mexico followed by a gradual lessening of the threat on Tuesday.
Elsewhere, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary across portions of
the Southeast will bring some showers and thunderstorms through
today. A Pacific system will bring increasing precipitation
chances into the Pacific Northwest by this evening and then inland
through the northern Great Basin and Rockies into Tuesday,
reaching into the northern High Plains Wednesday morning. An
upper-level ridge building over much of the central/eastern U.S.
will bring well above average conditions to start the week.
Forecast highs in the 70s and 80s will be common, including for
more northern locations like the Midwest and Northeast ahead of
the cold front. After a cool weekend, temperatures will begin to
return back closer to average over the West today and especially
into Tuesday, with highs generally ranging in the 60s and 70s,
with 80s into the Desert Southwest.
Kong/Putnam
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
73 de Scott KF5JRV
Pmail: KF5JRV@KF5JRV.#NWAR.AR.USA.NA
Email KF5JRV@gmail.com
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