| |
HP2BWJ > WX 10.11.17 06:06l 133 Lines 5867 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 389-HP2BWJ
Read: DG4IAK GUEST
Subj: Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
Path: DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OE5XBR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<CX2SA<ED1ZAC<LU3DVN<LU4ECL<HP2BWJ
Sent: 171110/0332Z @:HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM #:389 [Colon,Panama] FBB7.00e $:389-HP
From: HP2BWJ@HP2BWJ.COL.PAN.CEAM
To : WX@WW
000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100319
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Nov 10 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High
pressure surging southward behind a cold front moving across the
western Gulf of Mexico is pushing a cooler air mass southward
towards the eastern slopes of the Sierra Oriental mountains
along eastern Mexico. This has significantly tighten the
pressure gradient already in place across southeastern Mexico
allowing for gale force northerly winds to push through the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec and out across the Gulf where warm sea
surface temperatures are present. These gale force are expected
to increase to the range of 30-40 kt tonight along with seas
building to the range of 10-15 ft. The gale force winds will only
diminish slightly on Friday and through Saturday, however the
resultant seas Will remain within the same range. Model guidance
suggests that this event will last through early next week, with
winds increasing again to 35-40 kt Sunday night through Monday
night. During this time period, seas are forecast to build to
14-16 ft.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 09N92W to
09N101W to 09N111W to 08N118W to low pressure near 10N125W 1009
mb and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is seen within 120 nm S of the axis between 108W-111W,
and within 60 nm of the axis between 121W-125W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 06N-08N between 80W-83W, and
also within 60 nm of the axis between 105W-108W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for information on the
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.
A ridge will dominate the waters W of Baja California through the
rest of the week, while a trough will meander between the coast
of NW Mexico and the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally
fresh NW to N flow will prevail across the waters W of Baja
California, increasing to fresh to locally strong offshore of
the northern waters this evening through Friday as the pressure
gradient slightly tightens between a high pressure center over
the northern forecast waters and the aforementioned trough. A
cold front is expected to weaken before reaching the area on
Friday, but the associated long period NW swell inducing seas in
the range of 8-10 ft will propagate southeastward across the
waters N of 23N and to the W of Baja California on Friday, then
spread southward through all of the waters W of Baja on Saturday
while slowly subsiding.
Looking beyond the 48 hour forecast period of the discussion,
the pressure gradient W of Baja California will significantly
tighten early next week allowing for strong NW winds to develop
over those waters along with seas possibly building to around 9
ft N of about 25N.
Gulf of California: A relatively tight pressure gradient is
supporting moderate to fresh NW flow across the central and
southern Gulf, with gentle to moderate NW flow to the N. Seas are
2 ft or less in the northern Gulf, and 3-4 ft elsewhere. The
gradient will slacken on Friday allowing for winds to become
generally light and variable and remain as such through Saturday,
with seas subsiding to 2 ft or less, except for higher seas of
3-5 ft near the entrance of the gulf.
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW flow and 4 to 6 ft seas
will prevail through Saturday.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: Nocturnal drainage flow will support pulsing
moderate to fresh winds during the overnight hours for the next
several days, with seas occasionally building to 5 or 6 ft
downstream of the Gulf near 11N87W.
Light and variable winds and seas of 4-6 ft are expected
elsewhere to the N of 09N, while moderate to locally fresh
southerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are forecast S of 09N through
the next several days.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The cold front that moved across the NW waters during the past
couple of days is analyzed as a dissipating stationary front
from near 32N126W to 28N135W to 27N140W. A new set of long
period NW swell follows the front, with seas in the range of 8-11
ft in NW swell, except for higher seas in the range of 10-13 ft
N of 29N. This swell event will propagate southeastward through
the area reaching the waters W of Baja California as previously
mentioned. The front will dissipate by Friday evening. Seas of 8
ft or greater will cover the waters N of 15N W of 115W by Friday
evening, then begin to subside to near 8 ft throughout the
waters by Sunday evening. A surface trough is along 138W from
12N-17N. Latest satellite imagery shows decreasing scattered
moderate convection within 120 nm E of the trough from 19N-22N.
A tight pressure gradient over the northern part of trough is
producing NE-E winds of 20 kt from 19N-22.5N and between 136W-
140W.
A weak low pressure of 1008 mb as described above remains along
the monsoon trough near 10N125W, and will continue to move
westward through the upcoming weekend and into early next week.
Model guidance indicates a tightening pressure gradient between
the low and and building high pressure to the N during the
weekend into early next week. This may allow for trades to
increase to fresh to strong across the waters S of 20N and N of
the monsoon trough/ITCZ, supporting fresh seas of 8-10 ft.
$$
Aguirre
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
