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PA7KK > ENERGY 12.06.05 19:02l 88 Lines 4394 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 16121_PI8DAZ
Read: DG5YM GUEST OE7FMI
Subj: Re: VK3ABK, warming up.
Path: DB0FHN<DB0MRW<OK0PPL<DB0RES<DK0WUE<7M3TJZ<ON0BEL<PI8CDR<PI8DAZ
Sent: 050612/1649Z @:PI8DAZ.#TWE.NLD.EU #:16121 [Hengelo] FBB $:16121_PI8DAZ
From: PA7KK@PI8DAZ.#TWE.NLD.EU
To : ENERGY@WW
VK3ABK wrote:
>Having read a lot of interesting opinions on the subject of Global Warming
>(climate change!) the one thing that stands out is that we are all trying
>to forecast the future. A future that may not be decided by rational
>thought, but eventually by frantic need for energy to power our lives.
I agree. The need for affordable energy is so big, rational
thoughts disappear, when there is a severe shortage that would
affect the basics of our way of living.
>But the immediate danger on packet is that some of us are being much too
>dogmatic in bulletins that criticize those with opinions that don't
>fit the most widely published answers to future catastrophies. The cause of
>global warming, or 'apparent climate change', is not known. It is thought to
>be affecting the weather in most parts of the world at present. But, given
>the age of the world, and the few 'seconds' that we know, it would be a brave
>investor who would bet on the outcome. Personally, I cannot accept the notion
>that we small human inhabitants can cause the kind of energy upsets that
>nature does with sun and wind, or geological events like earthquakes and
>volcanic eruptions, and recently Tsunamis.
The scientists who say the (slow) accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere
is the known cause of the warming up, are a majority.
You and I are free to think if it is true or not. Decision makers
listen to the scientists and read there reports. A decision maker
needs input. He chooses for the majority opinion, what else
can he do.
Governments believe what is accepted and signed therefore the Kyoto treaty.
It became policy to implement laws and eco taxes based on the
outcome of this consensus amongst scienstists. If you look
at all the variables and interaction of the weather on earth,
it becomes clear it is very complex, perhaps too complex to handle.
At this moment, the charts are believed
and I think many people "predict the future" by extrapolating
the current uptrend. True or not, most decision makers
do not listen to the minority of scientists who say "not true".
10 know more than 1.
>Nuclear energy is an unknown science to most of us and the engineering
>required to use it is still being developed. There is sufficient evidence
>that Nuclear power generation is an accomplished fact. An estimation of 30%
>of world energy is being generated by Nuclear reactors, with nearly 80%
>in France.
All true. Nuclear power has some risky aspects. At this monent
politics fear the thread of it in the wrong hands. Sometimes
in 20 years of time a country changes from a harmless state
into a strong aggressive military power. They very often in the past
wanted to expand. Because of this, power plants now became
strategic targets. A totalitarian military governed state
does not mind to bomb a nuclear power plant.
During a major conflict intercontinental nuclear missiles will
bomb countries with nuclear power plants.
Nuclear energy is an appealing, tempting and dangerous
energy. The energy not itself is that dangerous, but we are.
A knife is not dangerous, but the killer with it is.
You and I know there were and are today a lot of aggressive states
who would love to have nuclear bombs. Sooner or later
such a state will use them, triggering something awful
much bigger. Perhaps we will find a solution
to solve the waste problem, perhaps not. In the 1960's
we all assumed by now we would have a cure against cancer
but it is still a major cause of death. Like you wrote
above, we try to forecast the future, but the future
is dark. In the 1960's we also assumed by now we all
would be making holiday trips into space while robots would
do all the work. Expectation very often is optimism.
Optimism very often is a desire.
When I look at history, I don't trust mankind.
Look at all the australian soldiers who died in Europe
and gave their life to restore "very big mistakes" from
people who believed in evil ideas or just could not
stop fighting. One very big war started because of only one shot
from a pistol coming from a man who was a member of an organisation
called the Black Hand. Was this an omen ? Some (nuclear) guns
get in the wrong hands, every policeman or politician knows this.
The one with the wrong hands is absolutely convinced however
he is doing the right thing.
73's - Henry, PA7KK.
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