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PA2AGA > TCPDIG 28.11.96 04:29l 146 Lines 5385 Bytes #-10807 (0) @ EU
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Date: Wed, 27 Nov 96 23:19:24 MET
Message-Id: <tcp_96_249B>
From: pa2aga
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Subject: TCP-Group Digest 96/249B
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a climbing rate in the world at large, while watching the rate of
advance decline rapidly in Ham Radio, to where it's pretty much stagnet,
at present. I cannot foresee any event that will move it, either,
without the needed young blood.
>
> For my part, I don't believe that the sale of AEA has to be a bad thing at
> all. A change of ownership and management may be "Just what the doctor
> ordered" for AEA, and the company could easily come back better than ever.
> Also, I seriously doubt that AEA's troubles reflect the status of other
> companies.
>
> It's a bit too early to tell, so I'm not going to either panic or celebrate
> just yet.
I am doing neither, just observing. My "panic" over the coming loss of
Ham Radio is finished.
>
> 73 DE Charles Brabham, N5PVL
> Packet Radio : N5PVL @ N5PVL.#NTX.TX.USA.NOAM
> WWW: http://www.texoma.com/~n5pvl
Jim
------------------------------
Date: Tue, 26 Nov 96 10:04:42 1000
From: John Day <dayj@ozemail.com.au>
Subject: AEA up for sale; customer service closed
----------
From: "Charles Brabham" <n5pvl@texoma.net>
Sent: Monday, November 25, 1996 11:28 AM
To: "Jim De Arras" <jmd@cube.WestLab.com>; "Steve Sampson"
<ssampson@oklahoma.net>
Cc: <tcp-group@ucsd.edu>
Subject: Re: AEA up for sale; customer service closed
According to Jim De Arras...
>
> What makes you think the spiral will end? Without new blood, Ham radio
> will end before the end of the first decade of the next century. You
> can bank on it. As Hams age, more and more are content with what they
> have. No more "fire" = no new sales. Why buy a 1996 model 2mtr radio,
> when the one you (and I) got a decade ago still performs to the aging
> state of the art?
>
> You yourself said it. No one will pay $1k for a modem, and your
> prediction of "super distributers" includes rising, not lowering,
> prices.
>
> The commercial makers of Ham radios will carry Ham radio on the backs
> thier "real" commercial rigs only as long as the costs are justified.
> That is ending.
>
> Jim
That's encouraging news, Jim!
Reduced availability of plug 'n play "appliances" will encourage the
educational side of ham radio, as hams once again turn to piecing together
their own equipment from whatever is available. Conversion of commercial
and military equipment will be more common, and this in turn will elevate
the quality of hams, which will make up somewhat for the reduced quantity
of them.
Just joking, but then again it does point out that there's a bright side to
every scenario. Personally I have serious reservations as to your gloomy
predictions coming about, but if they do I think you will be amazed at how
well hams will handle the situation.
For my part, I don't believe that the sale of AEA has to be a bad thing at
all. A change of ownership and management may be "Just what the doctor
ordered" for AEA, and the company could easily come back better than ever.
Also, I seriously doubt that AEA's troubles reflect the status of other
companies.
It's a bit too early to tell, so I'm not going to either panic or celebrate
just yet.
73 DE Charles Brabham, N5PVL
Packet Radio : N5PVL @ N5PVL.#NTX.TX.USA.NOAM
WWW: http://www.texoma.com/~n5pvl
..Who's a cheerful little optimist then!
Charles, I hope you are right. But sentimentality doesn't work at the bank.
When we have major dealers closing their doors, major manufacturers laying off
staff and everybody reporting a downturn of around 40% in the amateur market
then I think we just might be seeing the early signs of a minor problem.
Sure HF propagation isn't good, but the signs are out that even when the next
sunspot cycle does occur we will not see amateur radio return to the same
heights as we experienced over the last thirty or forty years. The Internet
itself now provides the ability for a vast number of people to do all the
things amateurs do and it does it cheaper and with no license fees, no need to
study and no problems dealing with the neighbors about outdoor antennae. Of
course the spontaneity and excitement of that bit of rare DX isn't quite the
same.
Don't fool yourself, amateur radio is in far greater trouble than many people
want to admit. Sure, it isn't going to disappear tonight or tomorrow, but
unless something significant happens it will disappear. That means that not
only will I have to look for a new job I will also need a new hobby!
Cheers, John VK3ZJF
------------------------------
End of TCP-Group Digest V96 #249
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