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VA2OM > SOLAR 03.03.25 11:33l 73 Lines 3272 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 21236_VE2PKT
Read: DJ6UX DL2RN
Subj: Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Path: DB0FHN<DB0RKB<DK0WUE<PD0LPM<VE3CGR<VE6NAS<VE2PKT
Sent: 250303/1016Z 21236@VE2PKT.#TRV.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Mar 03 0201 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
24 February - 02 March 2025
Solar activity was at minor storm levels with five M-class flares
observed from three different regions. Region 3998 (S14, L=115,
class/area Ekc/430 on 24 Feb) produced an M1.3 at 25/0247 UTC and an
M3.6/1f at 25/1159 UTC. The M3.6 flare had associated Type II (est.
630 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Region 4000 (N17, L=107,
class/area Dai/180 on 24 Feb) also contributed two M-flares: an M3.2
at 24/0702 UTC and an M1.5/1n at 24/2101 UTC. The M3 flare had an
associated Type II radio sweep (est. 677 km/s). Finally, Region 4001
(N24, L=176, class/area Dai/050 on 23 Feb) added an M1.3 flare at
24/0146 UTC. On 28 Feb, a Type II radio sweep (est. 1151 km/s) was
observed and was attributed to what was likely Region 4001 that had
rotated beyond the west limb. On 01 Mar, a large filament channel
erupted from the SE quadrant of the solar disk. At the end of the
day, a then unnumbered region in the SE produced a C9.5 flare. The
associated CMEs were modeled and are expected to arrive at Earth by
midday on 04 Mar.
The greater then 10 MeV proton flux levels exceeded the 10 pfu
threshold (S1-minor) on 25 Feb at 0020 UTC and reached a peak of 37
pfu at 0240 UTC. Conditions were below the 10 pfu threshold on 24
Feb and 26 Feb-02 Mar.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels on 24 Feb - 01 Mar and high levels on 02
Mar, reaching 1,460 pfu at 1715 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity reached major storm levels (G2-moderate)
on 27 Feb, with minor storm levels (G1-minor) observed on 28 Feb as
positive polarity CH HSS influences dominated the solar wind
environment. Unsettled to active conditions were observed on 26 Feb
and 01 Mar as +CH HSS effects bookended the four day high speed wind
event. Quiet conditions were prevelant on 02 Mar.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 March - 29 March 2025
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels, with a
chance for periodic high levels, throughout the period as returning
magnetcially complex regions transit then depart the solar disk on
03 -29 Mar.
There is a chance for isolated minor solar radiation storm levels
throughout the period if any of the returning/developing
magnetically complex regions are active and produce an event.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be normal to moderate levels on 06-09 and 19-28 Mar.
High levels are anticipated on 03-05, 10-18, and 29 Mar in response
to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on 03-09, 19-24, and 29 Mar. Active levels are expected on
10-18 and 25-28 Mar with possible G1 conditions on 12-15 Mar,
associated with recurrent negative polarity CH HSS influences, and
again on 26-27 Mar, associated with recurrent positive polarity CH
HSS effects.
73 de VA2OM, SYSOP of VE2PKT
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