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W7EES > SWPC 17.02.20 07:00l 58 Lines 1877 Bytes #-2269 (0) @ WW
BID : 96964_W3XSC
Read: DJ6UX DF7EAV GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N3HYM<N9LCF<VE2JOS<YT7MPB<N6RME<
W6XSC<W1XSC<W3XSC<N6MEF<N6RME<CX2SA<N9PMO<JE7YGF<JH4XSY<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 200214/1541Z 14336@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 390 km/s at 12/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 781 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Feb 071
Predicted 14 Feb-16 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 13 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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