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W7EES > SWPC 16.02.20 16:20l 64 Lines 1996 Bytes #-2270 (0) @ WW
BID : 96764_W3XSC
Read: DF7EAV DJ6UX GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N3HYM<OK2PEN<CX2SA<N6RME<W1XSC<
W3XSC<N6MEF<N1URO<N9LYA<N9LYA<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 200212/1210Z 14259@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 11/0230Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/0014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/0013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1640 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 071
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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