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W7EES > SWPC 30.01.20 15:45l 48 Lines 2015 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13903_W7EES
Read: DJ6UX DF7EAV GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OE5XBR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<CX2SA<OK2PEN<N1URO<N9LYA<W9JUN<
W7EES
Sent: 200130/1225Z 13903@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 29 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (30 Jan, 31 Jan, 01 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 29/0822Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/0148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
28/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 175 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jan 074
Predicted 30 Jan-01 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 29 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jan 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jan 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jan-01 Feb 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jan-01 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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