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W7EES > SWPC 07.01.20 02:44l 48 Lines 1925 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 13364_W7EES
Read: DF7EAV DJ6UX GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OE5XBR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<CX2SA<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 200106/2333Z 13364@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 575 km/s at 06/0135Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 05/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
05/2245Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (07 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 071
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/25
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