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W7EES > SWPC 09.11.19 02:45l 49 Lines 2001 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 12108_W7EES
Read: DJ6UX DF7EAV GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OE5XBR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<CX2SA<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 191108/2353Z 12108@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 374 km/s at 07/2129Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
08/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
08/0836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1124 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Nov 070
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 005/005-008/010-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/35
Minor Storm 01/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/40/50
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