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W7EES > SWPC 14.10.19 04:04l 47 Lines 1902 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11703_W7EES
Read: DF7EAV DJ6UX GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<DB0BLO<DB0ERF<DB0RES<WA7V<N1URO<OK2PEN<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<
W7EES
Sent: 191014/0017Z 11703@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.19
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 386 km/s at 13/0002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 898 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 067
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 008/008-005/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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