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W7EES > SWPC 09.08.19 04:04l 60 Lines 2351 Bytes #-2519 (0) @ WW
BID : 10638_W7EES
Read: DF7EAV DJ6UX GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 190808/2329Z 10638@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Aug, 10 Aug, 11 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 08/1251Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 08/0516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/1244Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 21913 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (09 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (10 Aug, 11 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 069
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/25/25
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