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W7EES > SWPC 01.08.19 03:33l 48 Lines 1931 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10476_W7EES
Read: DJ6UX GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<OE2XZR<OE5XBR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190801/0029Z 10476@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 31/1926Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 30/2229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
30/2246Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 067
Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 31 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/10
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