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W7EES > SWPC 12.07.19 05:40l 49 Lines 2017 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10117_W7EES
Read: DJ6UX DF7EAV GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<XE1FH<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190712/0029Z 10117@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 640 km/s at 11/0324Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/0739Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/0732Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6595 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 067
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 013/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/15/15
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