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W7EES > SWPC 09.07.19 04:04l 48 Lines 1929 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 10057_W7EES
Read: DF7EAV DJ6UX GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<DB0BLO<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N9LCF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 190709/0021Z 10057@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 08/0237Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 08/2024Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
08/2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Jul, 10 Jul) and
unsettled levels on day three (11 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 067
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 008/012-013/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor Storm 10/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/50/40
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