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W7EES > SWPC 09.04.19 20:34l 59 Lines 2061 Bytes #-2644 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 03/0627Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 03/0932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/0427Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 477 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 071
Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 03 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 009/012-008/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/25/25
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