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W7EES > SWPC 09.04.19 20:34l 46 Lines 1596 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8596_W7EES
Read: DF7EAV DK3UZ GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<DB0BLO<DB0ERF<DB0RES<IR2UBX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<KF5JRV<AB0AF<
GB7YEW<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190406/2229Z 8596@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 05/2242Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13361 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 074
Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 06 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 010/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/25/30
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