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W7EES > SWPC 04.04.19 20:34l 48 Lines 1687 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8285_W7EES
Read: DF7EAV GUEST DK3UZ
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<DB0BLO<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<F3KT<VE2PKT<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 190318/0330Z 8285@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 16/2240Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 17/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 17/0904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 675 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Mar, 20
Mar) and quiet levels on day two (19 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Mar 069
Predicted 18 Mar-20 Mar 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar 007/008-005/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/15/30
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