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W7EES > SWPC 14.02.19 23:03l 50 Lines 1638 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 7275_W7EES
Read: DK3UZ DF7EAV GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<DB0PM<OE2XZR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<XE1FH<LU9FQR<LU3DVN<N3HYM<KF5JRV<
N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 190116/2332Z 7275@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.18
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 420 km/s at 15/2112Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
16/1850Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/1848Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19
Jan).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 070
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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