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W7EES > SWPC 16.01.19 22:36l 63 Lines 2147 Bytes #-2729 (0) @ WW
BID : 222_LU8FJH
Read: GUEST DF7EAV DK3UZ
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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>From w7ees%w7ees.or.usa.noam@i0ojj.ampr.org Tue Jan 15 20:18:33 2019
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (05 Jan, 06
Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 04/1837Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 04/1709Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
04/1953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 666 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 072
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 072/072/070
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 018/024-012/015-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/15
Minor Storm 25/20/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 65/60/25
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