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W7EES > SWPC 23.12.18 23:03l 57 Lines 2004 Bytes #-2754 (0) @ WW
BID : 6371_W7EES
Read: DK3UZ DF7EAV GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 181215/0029Z 6371@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
>From w7ees%w7ees.or.usa.noam@i0ojj.ampr.org Sun Dec 23 21:35:34 2018
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 401 km/s at 14/0826Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/0517Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/0122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2387 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 071
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 006/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/25/25
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