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W7EES > SWPC 18.08.18 08:35l 48 Lines 1684 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4272_W7EES
Read: DK3UZ GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<DB0BLO<DB0ERF<DB0RES<PI8CDR<LU4ECL<N0KFQ<NS2B<KQ0I<W9ABA<
N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180817/2334Z 4272@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Aug, 19 Aug, 20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 17/1933Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/0236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Aug, 19 Aug) and unsettled
to active levels on day three (20 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 067
Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 17 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 007/008-006/005-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug-20 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/35
Minor Storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/10/50
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