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W7EES > SWPC 16.08.18 20:40l 48 Lines 1663 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4125_W7EES
Read: GUEST DK3UZ
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<DB0PM<OE2XZR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<N0KFQ<LU4ECL<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180803/1150Z 4125@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 02/0316Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 02/0516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
02/0016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 325 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Aug,
04 Aug, 05 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 070
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 070/072/072
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 007/008-008/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/30/30
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