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W7EES > SWPC 01.06.18 18:33l 51 Lines 1716 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3776_W7EES
Read: DK3UZ GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: DB0FHN<DB0FFL<OE2XZR<OE5XBR<OE1XAB<HG8LXL<N0KFQ<NS2B<N9PMO<W9ABA<
N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180527/2232Z 3776@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28
May, 29 May, 30 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 27/2003Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
27/1808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
27/1000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 320 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (28 May, 29 May)
and quiet levels on day three (30 May).
III. Event probabilities 28 May-30 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 075
Predicted 28 May-30 May 073/072/072
90 Day Mean 27 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May-30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/25/05
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